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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences >Implications of BSE infection screening data for the scale of the British BSE epidemic and current European infection levels.
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Implications of BSE infection screening data for the scale of the British BSE epidemic and current European infection levels.

机译：BSE感染筛查数据对英国BSE流行程度和当前欧洲感染水平的影响。

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The incidence of confirmed clinical cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Great Britain continues to decline, but the recent discovery of cases in previously unaffected countries (including Israel, Japan, Poland, Slovenia and Spain) has heightened concerns that BSE transmission was more intense and widespread than previously thought. We use back-calculation methods to undertake an integrated analysis of data on infection prevalence in apparently healthy cattle and the incidence of confirmed clinical disease. The results indicate substantial underascertainment of clinical cases over the course of the British epidemic, and consequently that two- to fourfold more animals were infected than previously estimated. Upper bounds on the predicted size of the new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) epidemic are unaffected, as the prediction methods employed fit to observed vCJD mortality data, and are not sensitive to estimates of the absolute magnitude of past human exposure to BSE-infected cattle, only to relative changes in exposure through time. We also estimate the per-head incidence of infection in cattle born between 1993 and 1997 in other European Union countries, using data on the testing of apparently healthy cattle slaughtered for consumption. Infection incidence for cattle born after mid-1996 was highest in Greece, Italy and Belgium, with Spain and The Netherlands having intermediate levels, and estimates for Great Britain, Germany and France being comparably low.
机译：在英国，确诊的牛海绵状脑病（BSE）临床病例的发生率持续下降，但是最近在以前未受影响的国家（包括以色列，日本，波兰，斯洛文尼亚和西班牙）发现的病例已引起人们对BSE传播更多的担忧。比以前想象的更加激烈和广泛。我们使用反算方法对看似健康的牛的感染率和确诊的临床疾病发生率进行数据的综合分析。结果表明，在英国流行期间，临床病例的不确定性很大，因此，感染的动物比以前估计的多了两到四倍。新变种克雅氏病（vCJD）流行病的预测规模上限不受影响，因为所采用的预测方法适合观察到的vCJD死亡率数据，并且对过去人类暴露于BSE-被感染的牛，只能随着时间的推移相对变化。我们还使用测试屠宰供食用的健康牛的数据，估计了1993年至1997年之间在其他欧盟国家出生的牛的人均感染率。 1996年中以后出生的牛的感染率在希腊，意大利和比利时最高，西班牙和荷兰处于中等水平，而英国，德国和法国的估计值则相对较低。

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