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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Bulletin of the World Health Organization >Current and future worldwide prevalence of dependency its relationship to total population and dependency ratios.
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Current and future worldwide prevalence of dependency its relationship to total population and dependency ratios.

机译：当前和将来全球范围内的dependency养率其与总人口的关系以及dependency养率。

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of people worldwide requiring daily assistance from another person in carrying out health, domestic or personal tasks. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study were used to calculate the prevalence of severe levels of disability, and consequently, to estimate dependency. Population projections were used to forecast changes over the next 50 years. FINDINGS: The greatest burden of dependency currently falls in sub-Saharan Africa, where the "dependency ratio" (ratio of dependent people to the population of working age) is about 10%, compared with 7-8% elsewhere. Large increases in prevalence are predicted in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Latin America of up to 5-fold or 6-fold in some cases. These increases will occur in the context of generally increasing populations, and dependency ratios will increase modestly to about 10%. The dependency ratio will increase more in China (14%) and India (12%) than in other areas with large prevalence increases. Established market economies, especially Europe and Japan, will experience modest increases in the prevalence of dependency (30%), and in the dependency ratio (up to 10%). Former Socialist economies of Europe will have static or declining numbers of dependent people, but will have large increases in the dependency ratio (up to 13%). CONCLUSION: Many countries will be greatly affected by the increasing number of dependent people and will need to identify the human and financial resources to support them. Much improved collection of data on disability and on the needs of caregivers is required. The prevention of disability and provision of support for caregivers needs greater priority.
机译：目的：估计全世界在执行健康，家庭或个人任务时需要他人日常协助的人数。方法：使用来自全球疾病负担研究的数据来计算严重残疾水平的患病率，从而估计依赖性。人口预测用于预测未来50年的变化。调查结果：目前，最大的抚养负担落在撒哈拉以南非洲，那里的“抚养比”（抚养人口与劳动年龄人口的比率）约为10％，而其他地方为7-8％。预计撒哈拉以南非洲，中东，亚洲和拉丁美洲的患病率将大幅度提高，在某些情况下可达5倍或6倍。这些增加将在人口普遍增加的背景下发生，抚养比将适度增加到约10％。中国（14％）和印度（12％）的受抚养率将比其他流行率增加较大的地区增加更多。成熟的市场经济体，特别是欧洲和日本，受抚养率（30％）和受抚养率（最高10％）将有适度的增长。欧洲前社会主义经济体的受抚养人数将保持不变或下降，但受抚养率将大幅增加（最高可达13％）。结论：许多国家将受到越来越多的依赖人口的影响，将需要确定人力和财力来支持他们。需要大大改善有关残疾和照料者需求的数据收集。预防残疾和向照顾者提供支持需要更加优先。

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