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Preventable H5N1 avian influenza epidemics in the British poultry industry network exhibit characteristic scales

机译:英国家禽业网络中可预防的H5N1禽流感疫情表现出特征尺度

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摘要

Epidemics are frequently simulated on redundantly wired contact networks, which have many more links between sites than are minimally required to connect all. Consequently, the modelled pathogen can travel numerous alternative routes, complicating effective containment strategies. These networks have moreover been found to exhibit ‘scale-free’ properties and percolation, suggesting resilience to damage. However, realistic H5N1 avian influenza transmission probabilities and containment strategies, here modelled on the British poultry industry network, show that infection dynamics can additionally express characteristic scales. These system-preferred scales constitute small areas within an observed power law distribution that exhibit a lesser slope than the power law itself, indicating a slightly increased relative likelihood. These characteristic scales are here produced by a network-pervading intranet of so-called hotspot sites that propagate large epidemics below the percolation threshold. This intranet is, however, extremely vulnerable; targeted inoculation of a mere 3–6% (depending on incorporated biosecurity measures) of the British poultry industry network prevents large and moderate H5N1 outbreaks completely, offering an order of magnitude improvement over previously advocated strategies affecting the most highly connected ‘hub’ sites. In other words, hotspots and hubs are separate functional entities that do not necessarily coincide, and hotspots can make more effective inoculation targets. Given the ubiquity and relevance of networks (epidemics, Internet, power grids, protein interaction), recognition of this spreading regime elsewhere would suggest a similar disproportionate sensitivity to such surgical interventions.
机译:流行病经常在冗余有线联系网络上进行模拟,该站点之间的链接比连接所有链接所需的最少链接要多得多。因此,建模的病原体可以经过许多替代途径,从而使有效的遏制策略复杂化。此外,还发现这些网络表现出“无标度”的特性和渗滤,表明其具有抗灾能力。但是,此处以英国家禽业网络为模型的现实H5N1禽流感传播概率和遏制策略表明,感染动态还可以表达特征尺度。这些系统首选的标度在观察到的幂律分布中构成了较小的区域,这些区域的斜率小于幂律本身,表明相对可能性略有增加。这些特征量表是由所谓的热点站点的遍布网络的内部网产生的,这些热点站点在渗透阈值以下传播大量流行病。但是,此Intranet非常脆弱。有针对性地只接种英国家禽业网络的3%-6%(取决于所采用的生物安全措施),可以完全防止大规模和中等规模的H5N1暴发,这比以前提倡的影响联系程度最高的“枢纽”站点的策略提高了一个数量级。换句话说,热点和集线器是不一定要重合的独立功能实体,并且热点可以成为更有效的接种目标。考虑到网络的普遍性和相关性(流行病,互联网,电网,蛋白质相互作用),在其他地方对该传播方式的认可将表明对此类外科手术干预措施具有类似的不成比例的敏感性。

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