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Simulation of an SEIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees

机译:与会者动态联系网络上的SEIR传染病模型仿真

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摘要

BackgroundThe spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts between individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. However, there are few empirical studies available that provide estimates of the number and duration of contacts between social groups. Moreover, their space and time resolutions are limited, so that data are not explicit at the person-to-person level, and the dynamic nature of the contacts is disregarded. In this study, we aimed to assess the role of data-driven dynamic contact patterns between individuals, and in particular of their temporal aspects, in shaping the spread of a simulated epidemic in the population.
机译:背景传染病的传播关键取决于个人之间的接触方式。因此,了解这些模式对于通知模型和计算工作至关重要。但是,很少有经验研究可以估计社会群体之间的接触次数和持续时间。而且,它们的空间和时间分辨率有限,因此在人对人的级别上数据不是明确的,并且联系人的动态性质也被忽略。在这项研究中,我们旨在评估个体之间,尤其是其时间方面的数据驱动型动态接触方式在塑造模拟流行病在人群中的传播中的作用。

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