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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Philosophical transactions. Series A Mathematical physical and engineering sciences >Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming
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Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

机译：将全球温度稳定在1.5°C或2°C时对经济增长的不确定性

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Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.
机译：经验证据表明，随着时间的推移，气候变化会影响整个国家的经济增长。但是，当全球平均地表温度（GMST）稳定在相对于工业化前水平的1.5°C或2°C时，气候变化对经济结果的相对影响知之甚少。在这里，我们使用“半度额外变暖，预后和预估影响”（HAPPI）项目在1.5°C和2°C变暖下的一组新的气候模拟，以使用气候影响的经验估计来评估经济增长的变化。全局面板数据集。对异常值和异常值具有鲁棒性的面板估计结果表明，除了全球非线性温度影响外，月内温度和降水的年内变化对经济增长的影响很小。在GMST升高1.5°C的情况下，预期的温度变化会导致北半球变暖的比例升高，而热带和南半球对经济增长的预计影响更大。考虑到计量经济学的估计和气候的不确定性，预计1.5°C变暖对经济增长的影响与当前的气候条件几乎无法区分，而2°C变暖表明许多国家的经济增长在统计学上较低（预计年均增长降低2％）。人均国内生产总值（GDP）的水平预测显示出高度不确定性，到本世纪末，在2°C升温下，相对于1.5°C，全球人均GDP预测中值降低了约5％。气候引起的人均GDP增长率下降与国民收入水平之间的相关性在p <0.001时很显着，低收入国家遭受的损失更大，这可能会加剧国家之间的经济不平等，并且与损失和损害的讨论有关本文是主题``巴黎协定：了解比工业化前水平高1.5°C的全球变暖世界所面临的物理和社会挑战''的主题。

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