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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Scientific Reports >Success of Montreal Protocol Demonstrated by Comparing High-Quality UV Measurements with World Avoided Calculations from Two Chemistry-Climate Models
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Success of Montreal Protocol Demonstrated by Comparing High-Quality UV Measurements with World Avoided Calculations from Two Chemistry-Climate Models

机译：通过将高质量的紫外线测量与两种化学-气候模式的避免世界计算进行比较证明了蒙特利尔议定书的成功

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摘要

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer has been hailed as the most successful environmental treaty ever (). Yet, although our main concern about ozone depletion is the subsequent increase in harmful solar UV radiation at the Earth’s surface, no studies to date have demonstrated its effectiveness in that regard. Here we use long-term UV Index (UVI) data derived from high-quality UV spectroradiometer measurements to demonstrate its success in curbing increases in UV radiation. Without this landmark agreement, UVI values would have increased at mid-latitude locations by approximately 20% between the early 1990s and today and would approximately quadruple at mid-latitudes by 2100. In contrast, an analysis of UVI data from multiple clean-air sites shows that maximum daily UVI values have remained essentially constant over the last ~20 years in all seasons, and may even have decreased slightly in the southern hemisphere, especially in Antarctica, where effects of ozone depletion were larger. Reconstructions of the UVI from total ozone data show evidence of increasing UVI levels in the 1980s, but unfortunately, there are no high-quality UV measurements available prior to the early 1990s to confirm these increases with direct observations.
机译：《关于消耗臭氧层物质的蒙特利尔议定书》被誉为有史以来最成功的环境条约（）。尽管我们对臭氧层消耗的主要关注是随后对地球表面有害的太阳紫外线辐射的增加，但迄今为止，尚无任何研究证明其在这方面的有效性。在这里，我们使用从高质量UV光谱仪测量得到的长期UV指数（UVI）数据来证明其成功地抑制了UV辐射的增加。如果没有这一具有里程碑意义的协议，到1990年代初到今天，中纬度地区的UVI值将增加约20％，到2100年时，中纬度地区的UVI值将增加四倍。相比之下，来自多个清洁空气场所的UVI数据分析结果表明，在过去的20年中，所有季节的每日最大UVI值基本保持不变，甚至在南半球，甚至在臭氧消耗影响更大的南极洲，甚至略有下降。根据总臭氧数据对UVI的重建显示出1980年代UVI含量增加的证据，但不幸的是，在1990年代初之前尚无高质量的UV测量值可以通过直接观察来确认这些增加。

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