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Global distribution modelling invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

机译:气候变化下白花菊的全球分布建模入侵风险评估和生态位动态

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摘要

In an era of climate change, biological invasions by alien species represent one of the main anthropogenic drivers of global environmental change. The present study, using an ensemble modelling approach, has mapped current and future global distribution of the invasive Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) and predicted the invasion hotspots under climate change. The current potential distribution of Ox-eye Daisy coincides well with the actual distribution records, thereby indicating robustness of our model. The model predicted a global increase in the suitable habitat for the potential invasion of this species under climate change. Oceania was shown to be the high-risk region to the potential invasion of this species under both current and future climate change scenarios. The results revealed niche conservatism for Australia and Northern America, but contrastingly a niche shift for Africa, Asia, Oceania and Southern America. The global distribution modelling and risk assessment of Ox-eye Daisy has immediate implications in mitigating its invasion impacts under climate change, as well as predicting the global invasion hotspots and developing region-specific invasion management strategies. Interestingly, the contrasting patterns of niche dynamics shown by this invasive plant species provide novel insights towards disentangling the different operative mechanisms underlying the process of biological invasions at the global scale.
机译:在气候变化时代,外来物种的生物入侵是全球环境变化的主要人为驱动因素之一。本研究采用整体建模方法,绘制了入侵性白花菜(牛眼菊)的当前和未来全球分布图,并预测了气候变化下的入侵热点。牛眼雏菊的当前电势分布与实际分布记录非常吻合,从而表明了我们模型的鲁棒性。该模型预测,在气候变化下,该物种潜在入侵的合适栖息地的全球增加。在当前和未来的气候变化情况下,大洋洲被证明是该物种潜在入侵的高风险地区。结果揭示了澳大利亚和北美的利基保守性,但相反地非洲,亚洲,大洋洲和南美的利基转移。牛眼雏菊的全球分布建模和风险评估对缓解其在气候变化下的入侵影响,预测全球入侵热点以及制定特定地区的入侵管理策略具有直接的意义。有趣的是,这种侵入性植物物种显示出的利基动力学的对比模式提供了新颖的见解,有助于弄清全球范围内生物入侵过程所基于的不同操作机制。

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