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Design and application of a CA-BDI model to determine farmers’ land-use behavior

机译：确定农民土地利用行为的CA-BDI模型的设计与应用

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摘要

The belief-desire-intention (BDI) model has been widely used to construct reasoning systems for complex tasks in dynamic environments. We have designed a capabilities and abilities (CA)-BDI farmer decision-making model, which is an extension of the BDI architecture and includes internal representations for farmer household Capabilities and Abilities. This model is used to explore farmer learning mechanisms and to simulate the bounded rational decisions made by farmer households. Our case study focuses on the Gaoqu Commune of Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province, China, where scallion is one of the main cash crops. After comparing the differences between actual land-use changes from 2007 to 2009 and the simulation results, we analyze the validity of the model and discuss the potential and limitations of the farmer land-use decision-making model under three scenarios. Based on the design and implementation of the model, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) the CA-BDI framework is an appropriate model for exploring learning mechanisms and simulating bounded rational decisions; and (2) local governments should encourage scallion planting by assisting scallion farmer cooperatives and farmers to understand the market risk, standardize the rules of their cooperation, and supervise the contracts made between scallion cooperatives and farmers.
机译：信念-愿望-意图（BDI）模型已广泛用于构建动态环境中复杂任务的推理系统。我们设计了一种能力和能力（CA）-BDI农民决策模型，该模型是BDI体系结构的扩展，包括用于农民家庭能力和能力的内部表示。该模型用于探索农民的学习机制，并模拟农民家庭做出的有限理性决策。我们的案例研究的重点是中国陕西省米脂县高渠公社，这里的大葱是主要的经济作物之一。在比较了2007年至2009年实际土地利用变化与模拟结果之间的差异之后，我们分析了该模型的有效性，并讨论了三种情况下农民土地利用决策模型的潜力和局限性。基于该模型的设计和实现，可以得出以下结论：（1）CA-BDI框架是探索学习机制和模拟有限理性决策的合适模型； （2）地方政府要通过鼓励农合作社和农户了解市场风险，规范合作规则，监督cooperative农合作社与农户之间的合同，来鼓励农种植。

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