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Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

机译:气候模型推断的晚冰期欧洲区域温度变化的验证

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摘要

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized paleoclimate datasets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based paleotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our paleotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.
机译:气候模型后预报与独立代理数据的比较对于评估非模拟情况下的模型性能至关重要。但是,对于地球近代最活跃的某些事件,缺乏用于评估各大洲过去气候变化的空间格局的标准化古气候数据集。在这里,我们介绍了一个新的基于奇伦诺米德的古温度数据集,旨在评估晚冰川期和全新世早期欧洲区域夏季温度变化的气候模式后预报。推断温度变化的纬度和纵向模式与ECHAM-4模型的模拟非常吻合,这意味着即使环境与当前存在显着差异,大气整体环流模型(如ECHAM-4)也可以成功预测欧洲区域性的温度变化趋势。但是,ECHAM-4推断出暖期期间的变化幅度更大,而温度高于我们的古温度估计值,这表明该模型和类似模型可能高估了欧洲过去以及未来夏季的温度变化。

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