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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Scientific Reports >In-season performance of European Union wheat forecasts during extreme impacts
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In-season performance of European Union wheat forecasts during extreme impacts

机译：极端影响下欧盟小麦预报的季节表现

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摘要

Here we assess the quality and in-season development of European wheat (Triticum spp.) yield forecasts during low, medium, and high-yielding years. 440 forecasts were evaluated for 75 wheat forecast years from 1993–2013 for 25 European Union (EU) Member States. By July, years with median yields were accurately forecast with errors below ~2%. Yield forecasts in years with low yields were overestimated by ~10%, while yield forecasts in high-yielding years were underestimated by ~8%. Four-fifths of the lowest yields had a drought or hot driver, a third a wet driver, while a quarter had both. Forecast accuracy of high-yielding years improved gradually during the season, and drought-driven yield reductions were anticipated with lead times of ~2 months. Single, contrasting successive in-season, as well as spatially distant dry and wet extreme synoptic weather systems affected multiple-countries in 2003, ’06, ’07, ’11 and 12’, leading to wheat losses up to 8.1 Mt (>40% of total EU loss). In these years, June forecasts (~ 1-month lead-time) underestimated these impacts by 10.4 to 78.4%. To cope with increasingly unprecedented impacts, near-real-time information fusion needs to underpin operational crop yield forecasting to benefit from improved crop modelling, more detailed and frequent earth observations, and faster computation.
机译：在这里，我们评估了低，中和高产年份欧洲小麦（Triticum spp。）产量预报的质量和季节发展。对欧洲联盟（EU）25个成员国从1993年至2013年的75个小麦预报年进行了440次预报。到7月，准确预测了单产中位数年，误差低于〜2％。低产量年份的产量预测被高估了约10％，而高产年份的产量预测被低估了约8％。最低产量的五分之四是干旱或高温天气，三分之一是湿地，而四分之一都干旱或高温。在该季节中，高产年份的预报准确性逐渐提高，预计干旱导致的单产下降，交货时间约为2个月。单一的，连续的季节反差，以及空间遥远的干燥和潮湿的极端天气系统在2003年影响了多个国家，分别是'06，'07，'11和12'，导致小麦损失高达8.1 Mt（> 40占欧盟总损失的百分比）。在这些年中，6月的预测（大约1个月的交货期）低估了这些影响10.4至78.4％。为了应对日益空前的影响，近实时信息融合需要加强对作物产量的预测，以受益于改进的作物模型，更详细，更频繁的地球观测以及更快的计算。

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