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Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments

机译：水稻模型之间的差异对CO2产量响应的影响的原因是通过自由空气CO2富集和生长室实验研究的

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摘要

The CO2 fertilization effect is a major source of uncertainty in crop models for future yield forecasts, but coordinated efforts to determine the mechanisms of this uncertainty have been lacking. Here, we studied causes of uncertainty among 16 crop models in predicting rice yield in response to elevated [CO2] (E-[CO2]) by comparison to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) and chamber experiments. The model ensemble reproduced the experimental results well. However, yield prediction in response to E-[CO2] varied significantly among the rice models. The variation was not random: models that overestimated at one experiment simulated greater yield enhancements at the others. The variation was not associated with model structure or magnitude of photosynthetic response to E-[CO2] but was significantly associated with the predictions of leaf area. This suggests that modelled secondary effects of E-[CO2] on morphological development, primarily leaf area, are the sources of model uncertainty. Rice morphological development is conservative to carbon acquisition. Uncertainty will be reduced by incorporating this conservative nature of the morphological response to E-[CO2] into the models. Nitrogen levels, particularly under limited situations, make the prediction more uncertain. Improving models to account for [CO2] × N interactions is necessary to better evaluate management practices under climate change.
机译：在未来的产量预测中，二氧化碳施肥效应是不确定性的主要根源，但一直缺乏确定这种不确定性机理的协调努力。在这里，我们通过与自由空气CO2富集（FACE）和室内试验相比较，研究了16种作物模型在预测稻米对[CO2]（E- [CO2]升高的响应）中不确定性的原因。该模型集合很好地再现了实验结果。然而，在水稻模型中，响应E- [CO2]的产量预测差异很大。变化不是随机的：在一个实验中高估了的模型在另一个实验中模拟了更大的产量提高。变化与模型结构或对E- [CO2]的光合作用响应的大小无关，但与叶面积的预测显着相关。这表明，E- [CO2]对形态发育（主要是叶面积）的建模次要影响是模型不确定性的来源。水稻的形态发育对碳的吸收是保守的。通过将对E- [CO2]的形态反应的这种保守性纳入模型，可以减少不确定性。氮含量，特别是在有限的情况下，使预测更加不确定。为了更好地评估气候变化下的管理实践，有必要改进模型以解释[CO2]×N相互作用。

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