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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Journal of Insect Science >The Potential Global Distribution and Voltinism of the Japanese Beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) Under Current and Future Climates
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The Potential Global Distribution and Voltinism of the Japanese Beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) Under Current and Future Climates

机译：在当前和将来的气候下日本甲虫（鞘翅目：甲虫科）的潜在全球分布和垂直性

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摘要

Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica (Newman), is a severe invasive insect pest of turf, landscapes, and horticultural crops. It has successfully colonized much of the United States and has recently established in mainland Europe. The distribution and voltinism of P. japonica will undoubtedly change as a consequence of climate change, posing additional challenges to the management of this species. To assess these challenges, a process-oriented bioclimatic niche model for P. japonica was developed to examine its potential global distribution under current (1981–2010) and projected climatic conditions (2040–2059) using one emission scenario (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5) and two global climate models, ACCESS1-0 and CNRM-CM5. Under current climatic conditions, the bioclimatic niche model agreed well with all credible distribution data. Model projections indicate a strong possibility of further range expansion throughout mainland Europe under both current and future climates. In North America, projected increases in temperature would enable northward range expansion across Canada while simultaneously shifting southern range limits in the United States. In Europe, the suitable range for P. japonica would increase by 23% by midcentury, especially across portions of the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Scandinavia. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, cumulative growing degree-days increased, thereby reducing the probability of biannual life cycles in northern latitudes where they can occur, including Hokkaido, Japan, northeastern portions of the United States, and southern Ontario, Canada. The results of this study highlight several regions of increasing and emerging risk from P. japonica that should be considered routinely in ongoing biosecurity and pest management surveys.
机译：日本甲虫Popillia japonica（纽曼）是一种严重的入侵性害虫，遍及草皮，风景和园艺作物。它已经成功地殖民了美国大部分地区，并且最近在欧洲大陆成立了。毫无疑问，由于气候变化，日本对虾的分布和野性将发生变化，这给该物种的管理带来了更多挑战。为了评估这些挑战，开发了一种面向过程的日本对虾生物气候生态位模型，以使用一种排放情景（代表性浓度途径[RCP]）来研究其在当前（1981–2010）和预计气候条件（2040–2059）下的潜在全球分布。 8.5）和两个全球气候模型，ACCESS1-0和CNRM-CM5。在当前气候条件下，生物气候生态位模型与所有可靠的分布数据吻合良好。模型预测表明，在当前和未来的气候下，整个欧洲大陆都有可能进一步扩大范围。在北美，预计温度升高将使整个加拿大向北扩展范围，同时改变美国的南部范围限制。在欧洲，到二十世纪中叶，日本对虾的适宜范围将增加23％，尤其是在英国，爱尔兰和斯堪的纳维亚半岛的部分地区。在RCP 8.5方案下，累积的生长日数增加了，从而降低了北纬地区可能发生的双年度生命周期的可能性，包括日本北海道，美国东北部地区和加拿大安大略省南部。这项研究的结果突出了日本假单胞菌增加和新兴风险的几个区域，在进行中的生物安全性和有害生物管理调查中应常规考虑这些区域。

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