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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Ecology and Evolution >Estimating occupancy dynamics for large‐scale monitoring networks: amphibian breeding occupancy across protected areas in the northeast United States
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Estimating occupancy dynamics for large‐scale monitoring networks: amphibian breeding occupancy across protected areas in the northeast United States

机译：估计大型监控网络的占用动态：美国东北部保护区的两栖动物繁殖占用

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摘要

Regional monitoring strategies frequently employ a nested sampling design where a finite set of study areas from throughout a region are selected and intensive sampling occurs within a subset of sites within the individual study areas. This sampling protocol naturally lends itself to a hierarchical analysis to account for dependence among subsamples. Implementing such an analysis using a classic likelihood framework is computationally challenging when accounting for detection errors in species occurrence models. Bayesian methods offer an alternative approach for fitting models that readily allows for spatial structure to be incorporated. We demonstrate a general approach for estimating occupancy when data come from a nested sampling design. We analyzed data from a regional monitoring program of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) in vernal pools using static and dynamic occupancy models. We analyzed observations from 2004 to 2013 that were collected within 14 protected areas located throughout the northeast United States. We use the data set to estimate trends in occupancy at both the regional and individual protected area levels. We show that occupancy at the regional level was relatively stable for both species. However, substantial variation occurred among study areas, with some populations declining and some increasing for both species. In addition, When the hierarchical study design is not accounted for, one would conclude stronger support for latitudinal gradient in trends than when using our approach that accounts for the nested design. In contrast to the model that does not account for nesting, the nested model did not include an effect of latitude in the 95% credible interval. These results shed light on the range‐level population status of these pond‐breeding amphibians, and our approach provides a framework that can be used to examine drivers of local and regional occurrence dynamics.
机译：区域监测策略经常采用嵌套抽样设计，其中选择了整个区域的有限研究区域集，并且在各个研究区域内的一部分站点内进行了密集抽样。这种采样协议自然很适合进行层次分析，以解决子样本之间的依赖性。当考虑物种发生模型中的检测错误时，使用经典的似然框架进行此类分析在计算上具有挑战性。贝叶斯方法为拟合模型提供了一种替代方法，可以轻松地合并空间结构。当数据来自嵌套抽样设计时，我们演示了一种估算占用率的通用方法。我们使用静态和动态占用模型分析了区域池中的木蛙（Lithobates sylvaticus）和斑点sal（Ambystoma maculatum）的监测数据。我们分析了2004年至2013年在美国东北部14个保护区内收集的观察结果。我们使用数据集来估计区域和个人保护区级别的占用趋势。我们显示两种物种在区域一级的占用率相对稳定。但是，研究区域之间发生了很大的变化，两种种群的某些种群在减少，有些种群在增加。此外，当不考虑分层研究设计时，与使用嵌套设计的方法相比，可以得出对趋势纬度梯度的更强有力的支持。与不考虑嵌套的模型相比，嵌套模型没有在95％可信区间内包含纬度影响。这些结果阐明了这些池塘繁殖两栖动物的范围种群状况，我们的方法提供了一个可用于检验局部和区域发生动态的驱动因素的框架。

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