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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Ecology and Evolution >Modeling the role of the close-range effect and environmental variables in the occurrence and spread of Phragmites australis in four sites on the Finnish coast of the Gulf of Finland and the Archipelago Sea
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Modeling the role of the close-range effect and environmental variables in the occurrence and spread of Phragmites australis in four sites on the Finnish coast of the Gulf of Finland and the Archipelago Sea

机译：模拟近距离效应和环境变量在芦苇在芬兰湾和群岛海的芬兰海岸的四个地点发生和扩散中的作用

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摘要

Phragmites australis, a native helophyte in coastal areas of the Baltic Sea, has significantly spread on the Finnish coast in the last decades raising ecological questions and social interest and concern due to the important role it plays in the ecosystem dynamics of shallow coastal areas. Despite its important implications on the planning and management of the area, predictive modeling of Phragmites distribution is not well studied. We examined the prevalence and progression of Phragmites in four sites along the Southern Finnish coast in multiple time frames in relation to a number of predictors. We also analyzed patterns of neighborhood effect on the expansion and disappearance of Phragmites in a cellular data model. We developed boosted regression trees models to predict Phragmites occurrences and produce maps of habitat suitability. Various Phragmites spread figures were observed in different areas and time periods, with a minimum annual expansion rate of 1% and a maximum of 8%. The water depth, shore openness, and proximity to river mouths were found influential in Phragmites distribution. The neighborhood configuration partially explained the dynamics of Phragmites colonies. The boosted regression trees method was successfully used to interpolate and extrapolate Phragmites distributions in the study sites highlighting its potential for assessing habitat suitability for Phragmites along the Finnish coast. Our findings are useful for a number of applications. With variables easily available, delineation of areas susceptible for Phragmites colonization allows early management plans to be made. Given the influence of reed beds on the littoral species and ecosystem, these results can be useful for the ecological studies of coastal areas. We provide estimates of habitat suitability and quantification of Phragmites expansion in a form suitable for dynamic modeling, which would be useful for predicting future Phragmites distribution under different scenarios of land cover change and Phragmites spatial configuration.
机译：芦苇是波罗的海沿岸地区的原生植物，在过去的几十年中已在芬兰沿海广泛传播，引起生态问题，社会关注和关注，原因是芦苇在浅海沿海地区的生态系统动态中起着重要作用。尽管它对该地区的规划和管理有重要影响，但芦苇分布的预测模型尚未得到很好的研究。我们检查了多个时间范围内芬兰南部沿海四个地点芦苇的流行情况和进展，并涉及了许多预测因素。我们还分析了细胞数据模型中邻域对芦苇的膨胀和消失的影响模式。我们开发了增强的回归树模型来预测芦苇的发生并绘制栖息地适宜性的图。在不同的地区和时间段观察到各种芦苇的传播数字，最小年增长率为1％，最大年增长率为8％。发现水深，岸边开放度和靠近河口对芦苇分布有影响。邻里配置部分解释了芦苇菌落的动态。增强回归树方法已成功用于对研究地点的芦苇分布进行插值和推断，突出了其评估芬兰沿海芦苇栖息地适宜性的潜力。我们的发现对于许多应用很有用。有了容易获得的变量，划定芦苇定植的易感区域可以制定早期管理计划。考虑到芦苇床对沿岸物种和生态系统的影响，这些结果对于沿海地区的生态研究可能是有用的。我们以适合动态建模的形式提供了生境适宜性的估计和芦苇扩展的量化，这对于预测在不同土地覆盖变化和芦苇空间配置情况下未来芦苇的分布很有用。

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