• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Ecology and Evolution >Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model
【2h】

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

机译：气候变化和火灾对草原-林地过渡带的影响：利用动态全球植被模型预测物种范围的变化

代理获取
本网站仅为用户提供外文OA文献查询和代理获取服务，本网站没有原文。下单后我们将采用程序或人工为您竭诚获取高质量的原文，但由于OA文献来源多样且变更频繁，仍可能出现获取不到、文献不完整或与标题不符等情况，如果获取不到我们将提供退款服务。请知悉。
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.
机译：在未来气候情景下，主要基于基于生态位的物种分布模型已经预测到物种范围的巨大变化。但是，导致这种转变的机制尚不确定。自然火灾和人为火灾已经影响了许多植物物种的分布，但其影响很少纳入物种范围的未来预测中。在这里，我们研究了气候和火的结合如何影响美国南达科他州黑山边缘的美国黄松-草原过渡带的历史和未来分布，如MC1所模拟的那样。 ，气候和大气中CO2浓度对植被动态的影响。为此，我们为Black Hills的美国黄松设定了MC1参数，将修改后的模型指定为MC1-WCNP。结果表明，受湿度和温度影响的火灾频率对于模拟较温暖的低地与较凉爽，潮湿的高地的林地的历史草原至关重要。基于21世纪的三个降级的一般环流模型气候预测，我们模拟了由于强烈变暖导致整个区域自然火灾发生的频率较高，而对于其中两个气候预测，则模拟了较低的相对湿度。但是，成熟的美国黄松林相对耐火，在我们未来的大多数气候x火灾管理场景中，最初树木繁茂的地区在21世纪仍然如此。这一结果与基于气候生态位的黄松的预测相反，这表明到21世纪中叶，其在黑山的适宜栖息地将大大减少。我们假设这两种方法的未来预测之间的差异部分是由于MC1中包含了火灾影响，并且我们强调了由人类管理的火灾在评估历史物种分布和未来气候变化影响中的重要性。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
代理获取

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号