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Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change

机译：模拟气候变化下农业气候和作物品种响应的变化

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This paper aims: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.
机译：本文旨在：（i）确定目前农作物产量形成最容易受到气候胁迫的区域;（ii）评估这些胁迫的严重性在时空上可能如何发展;（iii） ）评估和量化使作物种植适应各种（不确定的）气候变化预测的两种策略的效果。为此，我们利用了广泛的气候，作物和土壤数据，以及两个建模工具：N-AgriCLIM和WOFOST作物模拟模型。 N-AgriCLIM是为自动生成描述基本农业气候条件的指标而开发的，并已在整个芬兰使用。 WOFOST用于模拟四个代表性地点的详细作物响应。 N-AgriCLIM的计算已在全国范围内以10×10 km的分辨率对3829个网格盒以及32个气候情景进行了计算。在各种情况下，炎热，干旱和其他与作物相关的压力指标值的预计变化范围差异很大-变化的空间模式也是如此。总体而言，在参考气候下，春季谷物风险最高的地区位于芬兰西南部，到本世纪末转移到芬兰东南部。草地条件可能会改善。 WOFOST模拟结果表明，在大多数气候情况下，在有利的土壤上，CO2施肥和调整播种的组合可导致当前大麦品种的单产小幅提高，但在极端气候情况和贫瘠的土壤下，则不会。该信息对于评估替代适应策略可能很有价值。它有助于确定气候变化可能很快或对作物生产而言值得注意的区域，因此需要对适应措施进行更详细的评估。结果还表明，鉴于气候变化预测的高度不确定性，利用品种反应的多样性似乎是有益的。

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