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Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature

机译：极端气候事件驱动哺乳动物爆发：对沙漠降雨和温度100年趋势的回归分析

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Extreme climatic events, such as flooding rains, extended decadal droughts and heat waves have been identified increasingly as important regulators of natural populations. Climate models predict that global warming will drive changes in rainfall and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Consequently, to anticipate how organisms will respond we need to document how changes in extremes of temperature and rainfall compare to trends in the mean values of these variables and over what spatial scales the patterns are consistent. Using the longest historical weather records available for central Australia – 100 years – and quantile regression methods, we investigate if extreme climate events have changed at similar rates to median events, if annual rainfall has increased in variability, and if the frequency of large rainfall events has increased over this period. Specifically, we compared local (individual weather stations) and regional (Simpson Desert) spatial scales, and quantified trends in median (50th quantile) and extreme weather values (5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th quantiles). We found that median and extreme annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at both spatial scales over the past century. Rainfall changes have been inconsistent across the Simpson Desert; individual weather stations showed increases in annual rainfall, increased frequency of large rainfall events or more prolonged droughts, depending on the location. In contrast to our prediction, we found no evidence that intra-annual rainfall had become more variable over time. Using long-term live-trapping records (22 years) of desert small mammals as a case study, we demonstrate that irruptive events are driven by extreme rainfalls (>95th quantile) and that increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are likely to drive changes in the populations of these species through direct and indirect changes in predation pressure and wildfires.
机译：越来越多的极端气候事件，如洪水，暴雨，十年干旱和热浪，已被视为自然人口的重要调节者。气候模型预测，全球变暖将推动降雨的变化，并增加极端事件的发生频率和严重性。因此，要预测生物体的反应方式，我们需要记录极端温度和降雨量的变化与这些变量平均值的趋势相比，以及在什么空间尺度上模式是一致的。使用澳大利亚中部地区已有的最长的历史天气记录（100年）和分位数回归方法，我们调查极端气候事件是否以与中位数事件相似的速率变化，年度降雨量的变化性是否增加以及大型降雨事件的发生频率在此期间有所增加。具体而言，我们比较了本地（单个气象站）和区域（辛普森沙漠）的空间尺度，并比较了中位数（第50位数）和极端天气值（第5、10、90和95位数）的趋势。我们发现，在过去一个世纪中，这两个空间尺度的中位数和极端年度最低和最高温度都在增加。整个辛普森沙漠的降雨变化都不一致。各个气象站显示出年降雨量增加，大降雨事件发生频率增加或干旱时间更长（取决于位置）。与我们的预测相反，我们没有发现年内降雨随时间变化更大的证据。使用沙漠小哺乳动物的长期活捕记录（22年）作为案例研究，我们证明了爆发事件是由极端降雨（> 95分位数）驱动的，极端降雨事件的数量和频率有可能增加通过捕食压力和野火的直接和间接变化来驱动这些物种的种群变化。

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