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What Are the Driving Forces of Urban CO2 Emissions in China? A Refined Scale Analysis between National and Urban Agglomeration Levels

机译:中国城市二氧化碳排放的驱动力是什么?国家和城市集聚水平之间的精细尺度分析

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摘要

With the advancement of society and the economy, environmental problems have increasingly emerged, in particular, problems with urban CO2 emissions. Exploring the driving forces of urban CO2 emissions is necessary to gain a better understanding of the spatial patterns, processes, and mechanisms of environmental problems. Thus, the purpose of this study was to quantify the driving forces of urban CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2015 in China, including explicit consideration of a comparative analysis between national and urban agglomeration levels. Urban CO2 emissions with a 1-km spatial resolution were extracted for built-up areas based on the anthropogenic carbon dioxide (ODIAC) fossil fuel emission dataset. Six factors, namely precipitation, slope, temperature, population density, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and gross domestic product (GDP), were selected to investigate the driving forces of urban CO2 emissions in China. Then, a probit model was applied to examine the effects of potential factors on urban CO2 emissions. The results revealed that the population, GDP, and NDVI were all positive driving forces, but that temperature and precipitation had negative effects on urban CO2 emissions at the national level. In the middle and south Liaoning urban agglomeration (MSL), the slope, population density, NDVI, and GDP were significant influencing factors. In the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration (PRD), six factors had significant impacts on urban CO2 emissions, all of which were positive except for slope, which was a negative factor. Due to China’s hierarchical administrative levels, the model results suggest that regardless of which level is adopted, the impacts of the driving factors on urban CO2 emissions are quite different at the national compared to the urban agglomeration level. The degrees of influence of most factors at the national level were lower than those of factors at the urban agglomeration level. Based on an analysis of the forces driving urban CO2 emissions, we propose that it is necessary that the environment play a guiding role while regions formulate policies which are suitable for emission reductions according to their distinct characteristics.
机译:随着社会和经济的发展,环境问题特别是城市二氧化碳排放问题日益突出。为了更好地了解环境问题的空间格局,过程和机理,有必要探索城市二氧化碳排放的驱动力。因此,本研究的目的是量化中国2000年至2015年城市CO2排放的驱动力,包括明确考虑国家和城市集聚水平之间的比较分析。根据人为二氧化碳(ODIAC)化石燃料排放数据集,为建成区提取了1 km空间分辨率的城市CO2排放量。选择了降水,坡度,温度,人口密度,归一化植被指数(NDVI)和国内生产总值(GDP)这六个因素来研究中国城市CO2排放的驱动力。然后,应用概率模型来检验潜在因素对城市CO2排放的影响。结果表明,人口,GDP和NDVI均为正驱动力,但温度和降水量对国家一级的城市CO2排放有负面影响。在辽宁中南部城市群(MSL)中,坡度,人口密度,NDVI和GDP是重要的影响因素。在珠江三角洲城市群(PRD)中,有六个因素对城市CO2排放有显着影响,除了坡度是负面因素外,其他所有因素都是正的。由于中国实行分级行政管理模式,模型结果表明,无论采用哪种级别,与城市集聚水平相比,驱动因素对城市CO2排放的影响在全国范围内都大不相同。在国家层面上,大多数因素的影响程度低于在城市群层面上的因素。在分析驱动城市二氧化碳排放的各种因素的基础上,我们建议,环境必须起指导作用,而各地区根据其独特的特点制定适合于减排的政策。

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