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Survey design for broad-scale territory-based occupancy monitoring of a raptor: Ferruginous hawk (Buteo regalis) as a case study

机译：针对猛禽的大规模基于区域的居住情况监测的调查设计：以铁鹰（Buteo regalis）为例

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Given the uncertain population status of low-density, widely-occurring raptors, monitoring changes in abundance and distribution is critical to conserving populations. Nest-based monitoring is a common, useful approach, but the difficulty and expense of monitoring raptor nests and importance of reliable trend data to conservation requires that limited resources are allocated efficiently. Power analyses offer a helpful tool to ensure that monitoring programs have the ability to detect trends and to optimize financial resources devoted to monitoring. We evaluated alternative monitoring designs for raptors to identify appropriate survey effort to detect population trends. We used data collected from a territory-occupancy study of ferruginous hawks throughout Wyoming to guide simulations and evaluate the ability to detect trends in occupancy rates. Results suggest that greater gains in precision of trend estimation may be achieved through the addition of more sites and not more visits; statistical power was ≥80% when monitoring lasted 20 years and population declines were 20%; and probability of detection affected statistical power less than rates of population decline. Monitoring at least 150 sites for 20 years would provide reasonable estimates of trend in occupancy given certain rates of detection and occupancy, but only for population declines of 20%. Removal sampling did not result in substantial changes of any metrics used to evaluate simulations, providing little justification for employing the standard design if territory occupancy is the variable of interest. Initial rates of territory occupancy may be biased high, a problem inherent to many studies that monitor territory occupancy. We explored the effects of lower rates of initial occupancy on the ability to detect trends. Although we present data from a study of ferruginous hawks, our simulations can be applied to other raptor species with similar life history and population dynamics to provide guidance for future trend estimation of territory occupancy.
机译：鉴于低密度，发生广泛的猛禽的不确定的种群状况，监测丰度和分布的变化对于保护种群至关重要。基于巢的监视是一种常见的有用方法，但是监视猛禽巢的难度和费用以及可靠的趋势数据对保护的重要性要求有效分配有限的资源。功率分析提供了一个有用的工具，可确保监视程序具有检测趋势并优化用于监视的财务资源的能力。我们评估了猛禽的替代监测设计，以识别适当的调查工作以发现种群趋势。我们使用从怀俄明州各地的铁质鹰的占地研究中收集的数据来指导模拟并评估发现占用率趋势的能力。结果表明，可以通过增加更多的站点而不是更多的访问来获得更大的趋势估计精度。监测持续20年，统计能力≥80％，人口下降20％；检测概率对统计能力的影响小于人口下降率。在一定检出率和占用率的情况下，对至少150个站点进行20年的监视将提供合理的占用率趋势估计值，但仅适用于人口下降20％的情况。去除抽样并没有导致用于评估模拟的任何指标发生实质性变化，如果领土占用是关注的变量，则采用标准设计的理由很少。最初的区域占用率可能会偏高，这是许多监视区域占用的研究固有的问题。我们探索了较低的初始占用率对趋势检测能力的影响。尽管我们提供了有关铁质鹰类研究的数据，但我们的模拟可以应用于具有相似生活史和种群动态的其他猛禽物种，从而为估计未来的领土占有率提供指导。

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