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A System for Developing and Projecting PM2.5 Spatial Fields to Correspond to Just Meeting National Ambient Air Quality Standards

机译:符合国家环境空气质量标准的PM2.5空间场的开发和投影系统

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摘要

PM2.5 concentration fields that correspond to just meeting national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) are useful for characterizing exposure in regulatory assessments. Computationally efficient methods that incorporate predictions from photochemical grid models (PGM) are needed to realistically project baseline concentration fields for these assessments. Thorough cross validation (CV) of hybrid spatial prediction models is also needed to better assess their predictive capability in sparsely monitored areas. In this study, a system for generating, evaluating, and projecting PM2.5 spatial fields to correspond with just meeting the PM2.5 NAAQS is developed and demonstrated. Results of ten-fold CV based on standard and spatial cluster withholding approaches indicate that performance of three spatial prediction models improves with decreasing distance to the nearest neighboring monitor, improved PGM performance, and increasing distance from sources of PM2.5 heterogeneity (e.g., complex terrain and fire). An air quality projection tool developed here is demonstrated to be effective for quickly projecting PM2.5 spatial fields to just meet NAAQS using realistic spatial response patterns based on air quality modeling. PM2.5 tends to be most responsive to primary PM2.5 emissions in urban areas, whereas response patterns are relatively smooth for NOx and SO2 emission changes. On average, PM2.5 is more responsive to changes in anthropogenic primary PM2.5 emissions than NOx and SO2 emissions in the contiguous U.S.
机译:仅符合国家环境空气质量标准(NAAQS)的PM2.5浓度场对于表征法规评估中的暴露非常有用。需要计算有效的方法,结合光化学网格模型(PGM)的预测,以实际地为这些评估预测基线浓度场。还需要对混合空间预测模型进行彻底的交叉验证(CV),以更好地评估在稀疏监视区域中的预测能力。在这项研究中,开发并演示了一个用于生成,评估和投影PM2.5空间场以仅满足PM2.5 NAAQS的系统。基于标准和空间聚类保留方法的十倍CV结果表明,三个空间预测模型的性能随着与最近邻监视器的距离减小,PGM性能提高以及与PM2.5异质性源(例如,复杂地形和火灾)。事实证明,此处开发的空气质量预测工具可有效地投影PM2.5空间场,从而使用基于空气质量建模的真实空间响应模式来满足NAAQS。在城市地区,PM2.5往往对主要PM2.5排放最敏感,而对于NOx和SO2排放变化,响应模式相对平稳。平均而言,与连续美国的NOx和SO2排放相比,PM2.5对人为主要PM2.5排放的变化更敏感。

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