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Putting trapped populations into place: Climate change and inter-district migration flows in Zambia

机译：将被困人口安置到位：赞比亚的气候变化和跨地区移民流动

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Research shows that the association between adverse climate conditions and human migration is heterogeneous. One reason for this heterogeneity is the differential vulnerability of populations to climate change. This includes highly vulnerable, “trapped” populations that are too poor to migrate given deep and persistent poverty, the financial costs of migrating, and the erosion of already fragile economic livelihoods under climate change. Another reason for this heterogeneity is the differential vulnerability of places. However, despite the growing list of studies showing that the climate-migration relationship clearly varies across places, there is surprisingly little research on the characteristics of places themselves that trap, or immobilize, populations. Accordingly, we provide the first account of the “holding power” of places in the association between adverse climate conditions and migration flows among 55 districts in Zambia in 2000 and 2010. Methodologically, we combine high resolution climate information with aggregated census micro data to estimate gravity models of inter-district migration flows. Results reveal that the association between adverse climate conditions and migration is positive only for wealthy migrant-sending districts. In contrast, poor districts are characterized by climate-related immobility. Yet, our findings show that access to migrant networks enables climate related mobility in the poorest districts, suggesting a viable pathway to overcome mobility constraints. Planners and policy makers need to recognize the holding power of places that can trap populations and develop programs to support in situ adaptation and to facilitate migration to avoid humanitarian emergencies.
机译：研究表明，不利的气候条件与人类迁徙之间的关联是异质的。这种异质性的一个原因是人口对气候变化的脆弱性差异。其中包括极度脆弱，被困住的人口，由于深重而持续的贫困，他们太穷而无法移民，移民的财务成本，以及在气候变化下已经脆弱的经济生计受到侵蚀。这种异质性的另一个原因是场所的差异性。但是，尽管越来越多的研究表明，各地的气候迁移关系明显不同，但令人惊讶的是，很少有关于诱捕或固定人口的地方自身特征的研究。因此，我们首先提供了2000年和2010年不利气候条件与赞比亚55个地区之间的迁徙流动之间联系的地方“控制权”。从方法上讲，我们将高分辨率的气候信息与汇总的人口普查微观数据相结合，以进行估算区间迁移流的重力模型。结果表明，不利的气候条件与移民之间的关联仅对富裕的移民派遣地区具有积极意义。相反，贫困地区的特点是与气候有关的动荡。然而，我们的研究结果表明，使用移民网络可以在最贫困的地区实现与气候相关的流动性，这是克服流动性限制的可行途径。规划者和政策制定者需要认识到可以困住人口的地方的控制权，并制定计划以支持就地适应并促进移民以避免人道主义紧急情况。

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