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Unit Root Testing and Estimation in Nonlinear ESTAR Models with Normal and Non-Normal Errors

机译:具有正态和非正态误差的非线性ESTAR模型中的单位根测试和估计

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摘要

Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (ESTAR) models can capture non-linear adjustment of the deviations from equilibrium conditions which may explain the economic behavior of many variables that appear non stationary from a linear viewpoint. Many researchers employ the Kapetanios test which has a unit root as the null and a stationary nonlinear model as the alternative. However this test statistics is based on the assumption of normally distributed errors in the DGP. Cook has analyzed the size of the nonlinear unit root of this test in the presence of heavy-tailed innovation process and obtained the critical values for both finite variance and infinite variance cases. However the test statistics of Cook are oversized. It has been found by researchers that using conventional tests is dangerous though the best performance among these is a HCCME. The over sizing for LM tests can be reduced by employing fixed design wild bootstrap remedies which provide a valuable alternative to the conventional tests. In this paper the size of the Kapetanios test statistic employing hetroscedastic consistent covariance matrices has been derived and the results are reported for various sample sizes in which size distortion is reduced. The properties for estimates of ESTAR models have been investigated when errors are assumed non-normal. We compare the results obtained through the fitting of nonlinear least square with that of the quantile regression fitting in the presence of outliers and the error distribution was considered to be from t-distribution for various sample sizes.
机译:指数平滑过渡自回归(ESTAR)模型可以捕获与平衡条件之间的偏差的非线性调整,这可以解释从线性角度看似不稳定的许多变量的经济行为。许多研究人员采用Kapetanios检验,该检验的单位根为零,而静态非线性模型为替代。但是,此测试统计信息基于DGP中正态分布错误的假设。 Cook在重尾创新过程中分析了该测试的非线性单位根的大小,并获得了有限方差和无限方差情况的临界值。但是,库克的测试统计量过大。研究人员发现使用常规测试是危险的,尽管其中最好的性能是HCCME。可以通过采用固定设计的自举引导补救措施来减少LM测试的过大规模,这些补救措施是常规测试的一种有价值的替代方法。在本文中,已经得出了使用等规一致协方差矩阵的Kapetanios检验统计量的大小,并报告了减少大小失真的各种样本大小的结果。当误差被假定为非正态时,已经研究了ESTAR模型估计的属性。我们比较了在存在异常值的情况下通过非线性最小二乘拟合与分位数回归拟合获得的结果,并且对于各种样本大小,误差分布被认为是来自t分布。

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