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Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios and Potential for Adaptation

机译：二十一世纪西非的农业：气候变化及其影响情景和适应潜力

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West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such changes and in the potential for adaptation.
机译：众所周知，西非由于气候多变性，对雨养农业的高度依赖以及应对气候多变性和变化的有限经济和体制能力而特别容易受到气候变化的影响。在这种情况下，更好地了解西非的气候将如何变化以及这种变化将如何影响作物的生产力，对于制定可抵消不利影响的政策至关重要。本文基于最新的科学文献，全面概述了气候变化对西非农业的影响。如今，西非正在经历快速的气候变化，其特征是普遍变暖，季风降水恢复以及极端气候事件的增加。尽管存在很大的不确定性，仍然影响着对未来西非气候的模拟，特别是在夏季降水方面，但预计到的气候趋势在中高排放情景下还将持续到二十一世纪。然而，尽管未来雨季农业预报所必需的季风降雨预测有分歧，但仍出现了有力的证据表明西非单产下降。这种产量损失主要由平均温度升高而引起，而潜在的湿润或干燥条件以及较高的CO2浓度可以调节这种效果。通过基于基于过程的作物模型的一系列研究来调整西非主要作物的适应潜力，以适应未来气候调整作物系统（品种，播种日期和密度，灌溉，肥料管理）。所引用研究的结果是特定于作物和地区的，无法就最有效的适应方法得出明确的结论。需要做进一步的工作来改进季风系统的模型，并更好地量化气候变暖，农作物对这种变化的响应以及适应潜力方面的不确定性。

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