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Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

机译：青少年（7-11岁）乒乓球运动员的感知运动技能评估结果能否预测未来的比赛参与和表现？观察性前瞻性研究

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Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent development programme. Future studies are needed to clarify the predictive value in a larger sample of youth competition players over a longer period in time.
机译：除其他因素外，由于青年球员之间在成长，发展，成熟度，环境和乒乓球体验方面的差异，根据目前的表现预测青年球员的未来表现十分复杂。人才发展计划可能会受益于对乒乓球基本感知运动技能的评估，该评估被假定为确定运动员在感知运动领域的潜力。荷兰的感知运动技能评估旨在通过评估对发展技术和战术素质至关重要的基本技能，来测量青年球员乒乓球的感知运动潜力。建议使用未经训练的感知运动任务，因为这些任务比特定的运动技能本身更能代表球员的未来潜力，因为后者取决于对运动本身的了解。这项研究通过评估48名年轻乒乓球运动员（7-11岁）的比赛参与和表现的预测效度，评估了知觉运动技能评估对人才发展计划的价值。在区域性人才日中，对运动员的感知运动技能进行了一次测试，随后的比赛结果在2.5年内每半年记录一次。 Logistic回归分析显示，考试成绩并未预测未来的比赛参与度（p> 0.05）。然而，在最佳拟合模型中的广义估计方程分析，包括测试项目“瞄准目标”，“投掷球”和“眼-手协调”，表明感知-运动技能评估的结果很重要。未来比赛结果的预测指标（R 2 = 51％）。由于测试年龄会影响感知运动技能评估的结果，因此提出了另一个多变量模型，其中包括测试年龄作为协变量（R 2 = 53％）。这项评估表明将感知运动技能评估纳入人才培养计划的前景广阔。需要进行进一步的研究，以弄清在较长时期内大量青年比赛参与者的预测价值。

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