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Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data

机译：利用种群监测和捕获-捕获数据对M鹿中on病毒疾病动力学进行贝叶斯建模

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Epidemics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) of North American Cervidae have potential to harm ecosystems and economies. We studied a migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) affected by CWD for at least three decades using a Bayesian framework to integrate matrix population and disease models with long-term monitoring data and detailed process-level studies. We hypothesized CWD prevalence would be stable or increase between two observation periods during the late 1990s and after 2010, with higher CWD prevalence making deer population decline more likely. The weight of evidence suggested a reduction in the CWD outbreak over time, perhaps in response to intervening harvest-mediated population reductions. Disease effects on deer population growth under current conditions were subtle with a 72% chance that CWD depressed population growth. With CWD, we forecasted a growth rate near one and largely stable deer population. Disease effects appear to be moderated by timing of infection, prolonged disease course, and locally variable infection. Long-term outcomes will depend heavily on whether current conditions hold and high prevalence remains a localized phenomenon.
机译：北美鹿角科的慢性浪费病（CWD）的流行病有可能危害生态系统和经济。我们使用贝叶斯框架研究了受CWD影响的m鹿（Odocoileus hemionus）的迁徙种群至少三十年，以将矩阵种群和疾病模型与长期监测数据和详细的过程水平研究相结合。我们假设在1990年代后期和2010年之后的两个观察期之间，CWD患病率将保持稳定或增加，而CWD患病率较高会使鹿种群下降的可能性更大。大量证据表明，随时间推移，CWD的爆发有所减少，这可能是由于收获介导的种群减少所致。在当前条件下，疾病对鹿种群增长的影响微妙，有72％的机会CWD抑制了种群增长。借助CWD，我们预测鹿群的增长率接近一头，并且基本稳定。感染时机，疾病病程延长和局部感染可减轻疾病的影响。长期结果将在很大程度上取决于当前状况是否成立，高流行率仍是局部现象。

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