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Spatiotemporal Characteristics Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data

机译：基于省级面板数据的中国CO2排放时空特征决定因素和情景分析

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摘要

This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China’s CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995–2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.
机译：本文基于省级面板数据集，对中国CO2排放的时空变化，影响因素和未来排放趋势进行了实证研究。考虑了1995-2011年期间的一系列面板计量经济模型。结果表明，中国的二氧化碳排放量随着时间的推移而增加，并且具有明显的区域差异。此外，CO2排放还表现出空间依赖性和收敛性。人口规模，经济水平和城市化水平等因素对二氧化碳排放产生积极影响。相反，能量强度被确定为对CO2排放有负面影响。此外，CO2排放量与这四个变量之间关系的重要性因省的经济发展规模而异。情景模拟进一步表明，中等经济增长，中等人口增长，城市化增长低，技术进步高的情景（这里称为情景BTU），是中国实现未来可持续发展的最佳发展模式。基于这些经验发现，我们还就未来减少CO2排放提供了一些政策建议。

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