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Use of an Inverse Method for Time Series to Estimate the Dynamics of and Management Strategies for the Box Jellyfish Carybdea marsupialis

机译：时间序列的逆方法的使用以估计盒状水母（Carybdea marsupialis）的动态和管理策略

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Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a “demographic inverse problem” and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.
机译：通常，海洋生物的种群生态学采用描述性方法，其中随时间绘制其大小和密度。这种方法对于管理或对不同方案进行建模的设计策略的实用性有限。人口预测矩阵模型是生态学中使用最广泛的工具之一。不幸的是，对于大多数中上层海洋生物而言，很难标记个体并随时间追踪他们以确定其生命率并建立种群预测矩阵模型。但是，可以获取时间序列数据来计算尺寸结构和每种尺寸的密度，以便确定矩阵参数。这种方法被称为“人口反问题”，它基于二次规划方法，但是很少用于水生生物。我们使用未公开的古巴小球藻种群的现场数据来构建种群预测矩阵模型，并比较了两种不同的管理策略，以在2008年之前，与沐浴者之间没有显着相互作用的情况下，将种群数量降低到更低的值。这些策略是通过直接去除水母和减少猎物来实现的。我们的结果表明，从所有尺寸类别中去除水母比仅去除少年或成年动物更有效。当减少猎物时，当猎物耗竭影响所有水母大小的猎物时，降低marsupialis种群的效率最高。我们的模型与现场数据非常吻合，可以用于设计有效的管理策略或建立假设情景，例如驱逐人员或减少猎物。此sdfsdshis方法适用于其他海洋或陆地物种，这些物种随时间推移具有密度和种群结构。

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