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Modeling groundwater nitrate concentrations in private wells in Iowa

机译:爱荷华州私人井中地下水硝酸盐浓度的模拟

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摘要

Contamination of drinking water by nitrate is a growing problem in many agricultural areas of the country. Ingested nitrate can lead to the endogenous formation of N-nitroso compounds, potent carcinogens. We developed a predictive model for nitrate concentrations in private wells in Iowa. Using 34,084 measurements of nitrate in private wells, we trained and tested random forest models to predict log nitrate levels by systematically assessing the predictive performance of 179 variables in 36 thematic groups (well depth, distance to sinkholes, location, land use, soil characteristics, nitrogen inputs, meteorology, and other factors). The final model contained 66 variables in 17 groups. Some of the most important variables were well depth, slope length within 1 km of the well, year of sample, and distance to nearest animal feeding operation. The correlation between observed and estimated nitrate concentrations was excellent in the training set (r-square = 0.77) and was acceptable in the testing set (r-square = 0.38). The random forest model had substantially better predictive performance than a traditional linear regression model or a regression tree. Our model will be used to investigate the association between nitrate levels in drinking water and cancer risk in the Iowa participants of the Agricultural Health Study cohort.
机译:硝酸盐污染饮用水是该国许多农业地区日益严重的问题。摄入的硝酸盐可导致内源性形成N-亚硝基化合物,即强致癌物。我们建立了爱荷华州私人井中硝酸盐浓度的预测模型。通过对私人井中硝酸盐的34,084次测量,我们训练和测试了随机森林模型,以通过系统评估36个主题组(井深,距坑的距离,位置,土地利用,土壤特征,氮输入,气象和其他因素)。最终模型包含17组的66个变量。一些最重要的变量是井深,距井1公里以内的边坡长度,采样年份以及距最近的动物饲养操作的距离。在训练组中,观察到的硝酸盐浓度与估计的硝酸盐浓度之间的相关性极好(r平方= 0.77),在测试组中可接受(r平方= 0.38)。与传统的线性回归模型或回归树相比,随机森林模型具有更好的预测性能。我们的模型将用于研究农业健康研究队列的爱荷华州参与者中饮用水中硝酸盐含量与癌症风险之间的关系。

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