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Climate Change and the Macroeconomic Structure in Pre-Industrial Europe: New Evidence from Wavelet Analysis

机译:工业化前欧洲的气候变化与宏观经济结构:小波分析的新证据

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摘要

The relationship between climate change and the macroeconomy in pre-industrial Europe has attracted considerable attention in recent years. This study follows the combined paradigms of evolutionary economics and ecological economics, in which wavelet analysis (spectrum analysis and coherence analysis) is applied as the first attempt to examine the relationship between climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial Europe in the frequency domain. Aside from confirming previous results, this study aims to further substantiate the association between climate change and macroeconomy by presenting new evidence obtained from the wavelet analysis. Our spectrum analysis shows a consistent and continuous frequency band of 60–80 years in the temperature, grain yield ratio, grain price, consumer price index, and real wage throughout the study period. Besides, coherence analysis shows that the macroeconomic structure is shaped more by climate change than population change. In addition, temperature is proven as a key climatic factor that influences the macroeconomic structure. The analysis reveals a unique frequency band of about 20 years (15–35 years) in the temperature in AD1600-1700, which could have contributed to the widespread economic crisis in pre-industrial Europe. Our findings may have indications in re-examining the Malthusian theory.
机译:近年来,工业化前的欧洲气候变化与宏观经济之间的关系引起了相当大的关注。这项研究遵循了进化经济学和生态经济学的结合范式,其中小波分析(频谱分析和相干分析)被应用为在频域上研究工业化前欧洲气候变化与宏观经济结构之间关系的首次尝试。 。除了证实先前的结果外,本研究旨在通过提供从小波分析获得的新证据来进一步证实气候变化与宏观经济之间的关联。我们的频谱分析显示,在整个研究期间,温度,谷物产量比,谷物价格,消费者价格指数和实际工资在60-80年内是连续且连续的频带。此外,一致性分析表明,宏观经济结构受气候变化的影响大于人口变化。此外,温度被证明是影响宏观经济结构的关键气候因素。分析显示,AD1600-1700的温度存在约20年(15-35年)的独特频带,这可能是导致前工业化欧洲普遍发生经济危机的原因。我们的发现可能为重新审视马尔萨斯理论提供了迹象。

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