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Predicting Physical Time Series Using Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Networks

机译:使用动态岭多项式神经网络预测物理时间序列

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摘要

Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques.
机译:预测自然现象是许多科学领域的普遍问题,许多科学家已对此进行了研究和调查。时间序列预测的重要性在于它具有广泛的应用范围,包括控制系统,工程过程,环境系统和经济学。从对系统先前行为的某些方面的了解中,预测过程的目的是确定或预测其未来的行为。在本文中,我们考虑了一种称为动态岭多项式神经网络的高阶多项式神经网络体系结构的新应用,该结构结合了高阶和递归神经网络的特性来预测物理时间序列。在这项研究中,使用了四种信号:洛伦兹吸引子,AE指数,黑子数和热波温度的平均值。与基准技术相比,与许多高阶和前馈神经网络相比,仿真结果显示出在信噪比方面的良好改进。

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