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Lungworm Infections in German Dairy Cattle Herds — Seroprevalence and GIS-Supported Risk Factor Analysis

机译:德国奶牛群中的肺部感染—血清阳性率和GIS支持的危险因素分析

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摘要

In November 2008, a total of 19,910 bulk tank milk (BTM) samples were obtained from dairy farms from all over Germany, corresponding to about 20% of all German dairy herds, and analysed for antibodies against the bovine lungworm Dictyocaulus viviparus by use of the recombinant MSP-ELISA. A total number of 3,397 (17.1%; n = 19,910) BTM samples tested seropositive. The prevalences in individual German federal states varied between 0.0% and 31.2% positive herds. A geospatial map was drawn to show the distribution of seropositive and seronegative herds per postal code area. ELISA results were further analysed for associations with land-use and climate data. Bivariate statistical analysis was used to identify potential spatial risk factors for dictyocaulosis. Statistically significant positive associations were found between lungworm seropositive herds and the proportion of water bodies and grassed area per postal code area. Variables that showed a statistically significant association with a positive BTM test were included in a logistic regression model, which was further refined by controlled stepwise selection of variables. The low Pseudo R2 values (0.08 for the full model and 0.06 for the final model) and further evaluation of the model by ROC analysis indicate that additional, unrecorded factors (e.g. management factors) or random effects may substantially contribute to lungworm infections in dairy cows. Veterinarians should include lungworms in the differential diagnosis of respiratory disease in dairy cattle, particularly those at pasture. Monitoring of herds through BTM screening for antibodies can help farmers and veterinarians plan and implement appropriate control measures.
机译:2008年11月,从德国全国各地的奶牛场共采集了19,910罐散装奶(BTM)样品,约占德国所有奶牛群的20%,并通过使用该试剂盒分析了针对牛肺虫Dictyocaulus viviparus的抗体。重组MSP-ELISA。总共3,397(17.1%; n = 19,910)BTM样品呈阳性。在德国联邦各州中,阳性人群的患病率介于0.0%和31.2%之间。绘制了地理空间图,以显示每个邮政编码区域的血清阳性和血清阴性的人群分布。进一步分析了ELISA结果与土地利用和气候数据的关系。使用双变量统计分析来确定烟叶菌病的潜在空间危险因素。肺炎血清反应阳性人群与每个邮政编码区域的水体和草地面积比例之间存在统计学上的显着正相关。在逻辑回归模型中包括了与阳性BTM测试在统计上具有显着关联的变量,该模型通过控制变量的逐步选择进一步完善。低的伪R 2 值(完整模型为0.08,最终模型为0.06)以及通过ROC分析对该模型的进一步评估表明,可能存在其他未记录的因素(例如管理因素)或随机影响大大促进了奶牛的肺部感染。兽医应在诊断奶牛,尤其是牧场的呼吸道疾病时包括肺炎。通过BTM筛查抗体监测畜群可以帮助农民和兽医计划并实施适当的控制措施。

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