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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>other >The Significance of Shifts in Precipitation Patterns: Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change and Glacier Retreat on Extreme Flood Events in Denali National Park Alaska
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The Significance of Shifts in Precipitation Patterns: Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change and Glacier Retreat on Extreme Flood Events in Denali National Park Alaska

机译：降水模式转变的意义：模拟气候变化和冰川退缩对阿拉斯加德纳利国家公园极端洪水事件的影响

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In glacier-fed systems climate change may have various effects over a range of time scales, including increasing river discharge, flood frequency and magnitude. This study uses a combination of empirical monitoring and modelling to project the impacts of climate change on the glacial-fed Middle Fork Toklat River, Denali National Park, Alaska. We use a regional calibration of the model HBV to account for a paucity of long term observed flow data, validating a local application using glacial mass balance data and summer flow records. Two Global Climate Models (HADCM3 and CGCM2) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to ascertain potential changes in meteorological conditions, river discharge, flood frequency and flood magnitude. Using remote sensing methods this study refines existing estimates of glacial recession rates, finding that since 2000, rates have increased from 24m per year to 68.5m per year, with associated increases in ablation zone ice loss. GCM projections indicate that over the 21st century these rates will increase still further, most extensively under the CGCM2 model, and A2 scenarios. Due to greater winter precipitation and ice and snow accumulation, glaciers release increasing meltwater quantities throughout the 21st century. Despite increases in glacial melt, results indicate that it is predominantly precipitation that affects river discharge. Three of the four IPCC scenarios project increases in flood frequency and magnitude, events which were primarily associated with changing precipitation patterns, rather than extreme temperature increases or meltwater release. Results suggest that although increasing temperatures will significantly increase glacial melt and winter baseflow, meltwater alone does not pose a significant flood hazard to the Toklat River catchment. Projected changes in precipitation are the primary concern, both through changing snow volumes available for melt, and more directly through increasing catchment runoff.
机译：在冰川供水系统中，气候变化可能会在一定的时间范围内产生各种影响，包括增加河流流量，洪水频率和强度。这项研究结合了经验监测和建模，以预测气候变化对阿拉斯加迪纳利国家公园冰川喂养的中叉托克拉特河的影响。我们使用模型HBV的区域校准来解决长期观测到的流量数据不足的问题，并使用冰川质量平衡数据和夏季流量记录验证了本地应用。使用两个全球气候模型（HADCM3和CGCM2）和两个IPCC情景（A2和B2）来确定气象条件，河流流量，洪水频率和洪水强度的潜在变化。这项研究使用遥感方法完善了对冰川退缩率的现有估计，发现自2000年以来，冰川退缩率已从每年2400万增加到每年6850万，并且消融区冰损失也随之增加。 GCM的预测表明，在21世纪，这些比率将进一步增加，在CGCM2模型和A2方案下最为广泛。由于冬季降水增多和冰雪积聚，冰川在整个21世纪释放出越来越多的融水。尽管冰川融化增加，但结果表明主要是降水影响河流流量。四种IPCC方案中的三种预测洪水频率和幅度增加，这些事件主要与降雨模式变化有关，而不是极端温度升高或融水释放。结果表明，尽管温度升高会大大增加冰川融化和冬季基流，但仅融化水不会对托克拉特河集水区构成重大洪灾危害。通过改变可用于融雪的积雪量以及更直接地通过增加汇水径流，预计的降水变化是最主要的问题。

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