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The potential of Pathfinder AVHRR data for providing surrogate climatic variables across Africa and Europe for epidemiological applications

机译：探路者AVHRR数据为流行病学应用提供整个非洲和欧洲替代气候变量的潜力

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Surface climatic conditions are key determinants of arthropod vector distribution and abundance and consequently affect transmission rates of any diseases they may carry. Remotely sensed observations by satellite sensors are the only feasible means of obtaining regional and continental scale measurements of climate at regular intervals for real-time epidemiological applications such as disease early warning systems. The potential of Pathfinder AVHRR Land (PAL) data to provide surrogate variables for near-surface air temperature and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) over Africa and Europe were assessed in this context. For the years 1988-1990 and 1992, correlations were examined between meteorological ground measurements (monthly mean air temperature and VPDgrd) and variables derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data (LST and VPDsat). The AVHRR indices were derived from both daily and composite PAL data so that their relative performance could be determined. Furthermore, the ground observations were divided into African and European subsets, so that the relative performance of the satellite data at tropical/sub-tropical and temperate latitudes could be assessed.Significant correlations were shown between air temperature and LST in all months. Temporal variability existed in the strength of correlations throughout any twelve-month period, with the pattern of variability consistent between years. The adjusted r2 values increased when elevation and the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were included, in addition to LST, as predictor variables of air temperature. Attempts to derive monthly estimates of atmospheric moisture availability resulted in an over-estimation of VPDsat compared to ground observations, VPDgrd. The use of daily PAL data to derive monthly mean climatic indices was shown to be more accurate than those obtained using monthly maximum values from 10-day composite data. A subset of the 1992 data was then used to build linear regression models for the direct retrieval of monthly mean air temperature from PAL data. The accuracy of retrieved estimates was greatest when NDVI was included with LST as predictor variables, with root mean square errors varying from 1.83°C to 3.18 °C with a mean of 2.38 °C over the twelve months.
机译：地表气候条件是节肢动物媒介分布和丰度的关键决定因素，因此会影响它们可能携带的任何疾病的传播率。对于实时流行病学应用（例如疾病预警系统），通过卫星传感器进行的遥感观测是定期获取区域和大陆尺度气候测量值的唯一可行方法。在此背景下，评估了探路者AVHRR Land（PAL）数据为非洲和欧洲近地表气温和蒸汽压差（VPD）提供替代变量的潜力。在1988-1990年和1992年之间，研究了气象地面测量（每月平均气温和VPDgrd）与从超高分辨率高分辨率辐射计（AVHRR）数据（LST和VPDsat）得出的变量之间的相关性。 AVHRR指数来自每日PAL数据和复合PAL数据，因此可以确定其相对性能。此外，将地面观测结果分为非洲和欧洲子集，从而可以评估热带/亚热带和温带纬度地区卫星数据的相对性能。所有月份的气温和LST之间都显示出显着的相关性。在任何十二个月的时间段内，相关性的强度都存在时间变异性，并且变异性的模式在年份之间是一致的。除LST外，还包括海拔和归一化植被指数（NDVI）作为气温的预测变量时，调整后的r 2 值会增加。试图得出每月的大气水分供应量估算值，导致VPDsat与地面观测值VPDgrd相比被高估了。结果表明，使用每日PAL数据得出每月平均气候指数比使用10天综合数据中每月最高值所获得的数据更为准确。然后使用1992年数据的一个子集建立线性回归模型，以直接从PAL数据中检索每月平均气温。当NDVI包含在LST中作为预测变量时，检索到的估计值的准确性最高，在12个月中，均方根误差在1.83°C至3.18°C之间，平均值为2.38°C。

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