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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Epidemiology and Infection >Applying probability-weighted incubation period distributions to traditional wind rose methodology to improve public health investigations of Legionnaires disease outbreaks
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Applying probability-weighted incubation period distributions to traditional wind rose methodology to improve public health investigations of Legionnaires disease outbreaks

机译：将概率加权潜伏期分布应用于传统的风玫瑰方法以改进对退伍军人病暴发的公共卫生调查

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In the event of a Legionnaires' disease outbreak, rapid location and control of the source of bacteria are crucial for outbreak management and regulation. In this paper, we describe an enhancement of the traditional wind rose for epidemiological use; shifting the focus of measurement from relative frequency of the winds speeds and directions to the relative volume of air carried, whilst also incorporating probability distributions of disease incubation periods to refine identification of the important wind directions during a cases window of exposure, i.e. from which direction contaminated aerosols most likely originated. The probability-weighted wind rose offers a potential improvement over the traditional wind rose by weighting the importance of wind measurements through incorporation of probability of exposure given an individual's time of symptom onset (obtained through knowledge of the incubation period), and by instead focusing on the volume of carrying air which offers better insight into the most probable direction of the source. This then provides a probabilistic distribution of which direction the wind was blowing around the time of infection. We discuss how the probability-weighted wind rose can be implemented during a Legionnaires' disease outbreak, and how outbreak control teams might use it as supportive evidence to identify the most likely direction of the contaminated source from the presumed site of exposure. In addition, this paper discusses how minor adjustments can be made to the method allowing the probability-weighted wind rose to be applied to other non-communicable airborne diseases, providing the disease's probability distribution for the incubation period distribution is well known.
机译：如果发生军团菌疾病暴发，迅速定位和控制细菌来源对于暴发的管理和控制至关重要。在本文中，我们描述了用于流行病学的传统风玫瑰的增强；将测量重点从风速和风向的相对频率转移到所携带的空气的相对体积，同时还结合疾病潜伏期的概率分布，以在暴露的病例窗口（即从哪个方向）中确定重要的风向受污染的气溶胶最有可能是起源的。概率加权风玫瑰通过在给定个体症状发作时间的情况下（通过潜伏期的知识获得）并入暴露概率来加权风速测量的重要性，并重点关注风速测量的重要性，从而提供了潜在的改进空气的体积，可以更好地了解气源的最可能方向。然后，这提供了在感染期间风向哪个方向吹的概率分布。我们讨论在军团病爆发期间如何实施概率加权风上升，以及爆发控制团队如何将其用作支持证据，以从假定的暴露地点识别污染源的最可能方向。此外，本文讨论了如何对允许概率加权风上升应用于其他非传染性空气传播疾病的方法进行微小调整，前提是该疾病的潜伏期分布的概率分布是众所周知的。

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