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Development of an Assessment Method for Investigating the Impact of Climate and Urban Parameters in Confirmed Cases of COVID-19: A New Challenge in Sustainable Development

机译:评估COVID-19确诊病例中气候和城市参数影响的评估方法的开发:可持续发展的新挑战

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摘要

Sustainable development has been a controversial global topic, and as a complex concept in recent years, it plays a key role in creating a favorable future for societies. Meanwhile, there are several problems in the process of implementing this approach, like epidemic diseases. Hence, in this study, the impact of climate and urban factors on confirmed cases of COVID-19 (a new type of coronavirus) with the trend and multivariate linear regression (MLR) has been investigated to propose a more accurate prediction model. For this propose, some important climate parameters, including daily average temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, in addition to urban parameters such as population density, were considered, and their impacts on confirmed cases of COVID-19 were analyzed. The analysis was performed for three case studies in Italy, and the application of the proposed method has been investigated. The impacts of parameters have been considered with a delay time from one to nine days to find out the most suitable combination. The result of the analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model and the impact of climate parameters on the trend of confirmed cases. The research hypothesis approved by the MLR model and the present assessment method could be applied by considering several variables that exhibit the exact delay of them to new confirmed cases of COVID-19.
机译:可持续发展一直是一个有争议的全球话题,近年来,作为一个复杂的概念,可持续发展在为社会创造有利的未来中发挥着关键作用。同时,在实施这种方法的过程中存在一些问题,例如流行病。因此,在这项研究中,研究了气候和城市因素对具有趋势和多元线性回归(MLR)的确诊病例COVID-19(一种新型冠状病毒)的影响,从而提出了一种更准确的预测模型。对于此建议,除了城市参数(例如人口密度)外,还考虑了一些重要的气候参数,包括日平均温度,相对湿度和风速,并分析了它们对确诊的COVID-19病例的影响。对意大利的三个案例进行了分析,并研究了所提出方法的应用。已考虑将参数的影响延迟一到九天,以找到最合适的组合。分析结果证明了该模型的有效性以及气候参数对确诊病例趋势的影响。经MLR模型和本评估方法认可的研究假设可以通过考虑几个变量来体现,这些变量将其确切延迟显示在新确诊的COVID-19病例中。

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