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The benefit of modeling jumps in realized volatility for risk prediction: Evidence from Chinese mainland stocks

机译:建模的好处是可以预测风险的实际波动率:来自中国大陆股票的证据

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摘要

Recent literature has focused on realized volatility models to predict financial risk. This paper studies the benefit of explicitly modeling jumps in this class of models for value at risk (VaR) prediction. Several popular realized volatility models are compared in terms of their VaR forecasting performances through a Monte Carlo study and an analysis based on empirical data of eight Chinese stocks. The results suggest that careful modeling of jumps in realized volatility models can largely improve VaR prediction, especially for emerging markets where jumps play a stronger role than those in developed markets.
机译:最近的文献集中在已实现的波动率模型上,以预测金融风险。本文研究了在此类模型中为风险价值(VaR)预测明确建模跳跃的好处。通过蒙特卡洛研究和基于八种中国股票经验数据的分析,比较了几种流行的已实现波动率模型的VaR预测表现。结果表明,对已实现的波动率模型中的跃变进行仔细建模可以大大改善VaR预测,尤其是对于新兴市场,在这些新兴市场中,跃变起着比发达市场更大的作用。

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