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Risks of an epidemic in a two-layered railway-local area traveling network

机译:两层铁路局域旅行网络中的流行病风险

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摘要

In view of the huge investments into the construction of high speed rails systems in USA, Japan, and China, we present a two-layer traveling network model to study the risks that the railway network poses in case of an epidemic outbreak. The model consists of two layers with one layer representing the railway network and the other representing the local-area transportation subnetworks. To reveal the underlying mechanism, we also study a simplified model that focuses on how a major railway affects an epidemic. We assume that the individuals, when they travel, take on the shortest path to the destination and become non-travelers upon arrival. When an infection process co-evolves with the traveling dynamics, the railway serves to gather a crowd, transmit the disease, and spread infected agents to local area subnetworks. The railway leads to a faster initial increase in infected agents and a higher steady state infection, and thus poses risks; and frequent traveling leads to a more severe infection. These features revealed in simulations are in agreement with analytic results of a simplified version of the model.
机译:鉴于在美国,日本和中国建设高速铁路系统的巨额投资,我们提出了一个两层旅行网络模型来研究铁路网络在流行病暴发时带来的风险。该模型由两层组成,一层代表铁路网,另一层代表局域交通子网。为了揭示潜在的机制,我们还研究了一个简化的模型,该模型侧重于主要铁路如何影响流行病。我们假设个人在旅行时采取最短的路径到达目的地,并在到达时成为非旅行者。当感染过程与行驶动态共同发展时,铁路将聚集人群,传播疾病并将受感染的病原体传播到本地子网。铁路导致受感染病原体的初期增加更快,稳态感染率更高,因此带来了风险。频繁旅行会导致更严重的感染。仿真中揭示的这些功能与模型简化版本的分析结果一致。

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