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How can Azerbaijan meet its Paris Agreement commitments: assessing the effectiveness of climate change-related energy policy options using LEAP modeling

机译：Azerbaijan如何符合其巴黎协议承诺：评估利用跨建模的气候变化相关能源政策选择的有效性

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Azerbaijan has committed to cut GHG emissions by 35% by 2030 under the Paris Agreement. By applying LEAP, a well-regarded forecasting model based on inventories defined under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), GHG emissions projections are modeled in three scenarios: a without measures (WOM) scenario or business-as-usual, which assumes no change to current behavior, a with existing measures (WEM) scenario, which takes into account currently planned measures in Azerbaijan, and an EU policy scenario, which mirrors the existing mitigation measures of the European Union. The WOM scenario of total GHG emissions from the energy sector indicates that from 2010 to 2030, total emissions will increase by 67% in Azerbaijan. In the WEM scenario, forecasted GHG emissions are only 29.7% lower than the base year and still above the nation's Paris Agreement commitment. In the EU policy scenario, projected GHG emissions are 37.2% lower than the base year. Therefore, current mitigation measures are insufficient for Azerbaijan to meet its commitments to the Paris Agreement, and stronger measures than currently planned are necessary. Because of its status as a developing nation with limited resources, Azerbaijan must have funding from developed nations promised under the Paris Agreement to transition towards a less carbon-heavy economy.
机译：在巴黎协议下，阿塞拜疆致力于将温室气体排放量减少35％至2030年。通过应用飞跃，基于IPCC（气候变化政府间小组）下定义的存款的经过良好的预测模型，温室气体排放预测在三种情况下进行了建模：A没有措施（WOW）场景或常用的业务，假设目前行为没有变更，一个具有现有措施（WEM）情景，这考虑了当前计划在阿塞拜疆的计划措施以及欧盟政策情景，反映了欧洲联盟的现有缓解措施。来自能源部门的温室气体总排放的WOM情景表明，从2010年到2030年，阿塞拜疆总排放量将增加67％。在WEM情景中，预测的温室气体排放量低于基准年的29.7％，仍高于国家巴黎协议承诺。在欧盟政策方案中，预计的温室气体排放量比基准年低37.2％。因此，当前的缓解措施对于阿塞拜疆不足以履行其对巴黎协定的承诺，并且需要比目前计划的更强的措施是必要的。由于其作为资源有限的发展中国家，阿塞拜疆必须从巴黎协议下承诺的发达国家提供资金，以转向较少的碳重型经济。

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