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Panel logit regression analysis of the effects of corruption on inflation pattern in the Economic Community of West African states

机译：面板Logit回归对西非国家经济共同体通胀模式影响的回归分析

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摘要

It is widely believed that increase in money supply increases inflation rates in the long run. Dissenting evidences have later emerged to show that the inflation-money growth link has weakened over time. This study provides a political interpretation of inflation rates dynamics by investigating corruption as a potential risk factor associated with high inflation in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) using panel logit model. All 15 ECOWAS members were selected and studied between 1995 and 2019. Estimates revealed that, in the long run, ECOWAS inflation was significantly determined by past inflation shocks, level of corruption, real GDP and exchange rates; the link between inflation and money supply growth had indeed weakened over time. In particular, results showed that, other things given, a unit increase in the level of corruption increased the risk of high inflation by 82.6%. Results also indicated that seigniorage was not enough to explain the link between inflation and corruption, suggesting that some other channels exist through which corruption affects inflation. In addition, taking 0.5 as the benchmark for forecast probabilities, the logit model reconstructed all the high inflation episodes experienced in ECOWAS in spite of the outlying observations of Liberia and Guinea. The study therefore concludes that other things given, the more corrupt ECOWAS members are, the higher the likelihood to experience high inflation.
机译：人们普遍认为，在长期运行中，货币供应的增加会增加充气率。后来出现了异议证明，表明通货膨胀 - 金钱增长联系随着时间的推移而削弱。本研究通过调查腐败作为利用面板Logit模型的西非国家经济共同体（Ecowas）的高通胀相关的潜在危险因素来提供对通胀率动态的政治解释。 1995年至2019年间，所有15次Ecowas成员选择和研究。据估计显示，从长远来看，通过过去的通胀冲击，腐败水平，真正的GDP和汇率，Ecowas通货膨胀显着决定。通货膨胀和货币供应增长之间的联系确实削弱了随着时间的推移。特别是，结果表明，给出的其他事情，腐败水平的单位增加了高通货膨胀的风险增加了82.6％。结果还表示，Seigniorage不足以解释通货膨胀与腐败之间的联系，这表明腐败会影响一些其他渠道影响通货膨胀。此外，作为预测概率的基准，Logit模型将重建Ecowas的所有高通胀集中，尽管对利比里亚和几内亚的外观观察。因此，研究得出结论，给出了其他事情，更腐败的西非生态成员，越高的膨胀可能性越高。

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