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Long-term projections of economic growth in the 47 prefectures of Japan: An application of Japan shared socioeconomic pathways

机译：日本47个县的经济增长的长期预测：日本的应用共享社会经济途径

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摘要

Assessing climate change impacts on local communities is an urgent task for national and subnational governments. The impact assessment requires socioeconomic scenarios, including a long-term outlook for demographic and economic indices. In Japan, the National Institute for Environmental Studies developed the Japan Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (JPNSSPs) and presented regional population scenarios corresponding to five different storylines. However, there exists no quantitative information about changes in local economies under the population scenarios. This study examines the economic activities in Japan's 47 prefectures using statistical models and calculates changes in the major economic indices (e.g., production, capital stock, and labor population) until 2100. The economic projection is based on ten socioeconomic scenarios generated from the JPNSSP population scenarios and original productivity scenarios. The economic projection results clearly show that Japan's population aging and decline have catastrophic impacts on national and subnational economies. Even in the most optimistic scenario, assuming a massive influx of immigrants and fast productivity growth, the GDP growth rate becomes negative in the 2090s. In the most pessimistic scenario, the GDP growth rate becomes negative in 2028 and continues to decline. As a result, Japan's GDP decreases to the level of the 1970s by 2100. The improvement of productivity cannot offset the GDP shrink caused by demographic changes. Furthermore, the population aging and decline accelerate the wealth concentration in urban areas. The Theil index, calculated using the economic projection results, shows increasing trends in all the scenarios. Tokyo's presence in Japan's economy will continue to increase throughout this century. Meanwhile, Kanagawa and Saitama, which belong to the top five prefectures in terms of economic production, may lose their positions. The Tohoku region, already suffering from population decline, will face severe economic stagnation. Our findings suggest that the depressing future is inevitable unless Japan overcomes the population aging and decline.
机译：评估对当地社区的气候变化影响是国家和地方政府的紧迫任务。影响评估需要社会经济情景，包括人口统计和经济指标的长期前景。在日本，国家环境研究所发展日本共享社会经济途径（JPNSSPS），并提出了与五种不同的故事情节相对应的区域人口情景。但是，在人口情景下，没有关于当地经济的变化的量化信息。本研究探讨了日本47个县的经济活动，使用统计模型，并计算主要经济指数的变化（例如，生产，资本股票和劳动力人口）直到2100.经济投标基于JPNSSP人口产生的十个社会经济情景场景和原始生产力方案。经济投影结果清楚地表明，日本的人口老龄化和下降对国家和博国经济体具有灾难性的影响。即使在最乐观的情况下，假设涌入移民和快速生产率的增长，GDP增长率在2090年代变为负。在最悲观的情景中，GDP增长率在2028年变为负，并继续下降。因此，日本的国内生产总值减少到20世纪70年代的水平2100.生产力的提高无法抵消由人口变化引起的GDP缩小。此外，人口老龄化和下降加速了城市地区的财富集中。使用经济投影结果计算的TheIL指数显示了所有场景的趋势。东京在日本经济的存在将继续在本世纪中继续增加。与此同时，文卡川和埼玉山，属于经济生产方面的五大县，可能会失去他们的立场。东北地区已经遭受人口下降，将面临严重的经济停滞。我们的研究结果表明，除非日本克服人口老龄化和衰落，否则令人沮丧的未来是不可避免的。

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