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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Water Availability–Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico
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Water Availability–Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico

机译：墨西哥过度地区气候变化下的水可用性 - 需求平衡

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Climate change scenarios show that water availability could be decreasing in the near future, adding to the increasing problem of the growing water demands in socioeconomic sectors. The aim of this work was to generate a geographically explicit water balance concerning availability vs. demand in an overpopulated region of Mexico. Water balance and water deficit models were made for three periods of time: 1970–2000, and two future periods of time (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Three global climate models were used in addition to two different climate scenarios from each (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.6 and RCP 8.5). Water demand for socioeconomic sectors was calculated through the water footprint. Water availability was 197,644.58 hm3/year, while that the water demand was 59,187 hm3/year. The socioeconomic sectors with the highest demand were domestic services (48%), agriculture (27%), livestock agriculture (20%), and timber production (5%). The highest water availability areas were not the same as those with the highest demand and vice versa. However, 39% of municipalities had a higher water demand than its availability. A significant reduction in water availability was identified, considering an interval of −15% to 40%. This variation depends on climate models, scenarios, and period of time. Areas with overpopulated cities in the region would have higher pressure on water availability. These results could be used in the implementation of public policies by focusing on adaptation strategies to reduce water deficit in the immediate future.
机译：气候变化情景表明，在不久的将来可能会降低水资源可用性，增加了社会经济部门日益增长的水需求的越来越多的问题。这项工作的目的是在墨西哥过度地区的可用性与需求上产生地理上明确的水平。水平和水赤字模型进行了三个时间：1970-2000，以及两个未来的时间段（2041-2060和2061-2080）。除了来自每个（代表浓度途径（RCP）RCP 4.6和RCP 8.5）的两种不同的气候情景外，还使用了三种全球气候模型。通过水足迹计算对社会经济部门的水需求。水资源可用性为197,644.58 HM3 /年，而水需求量为59,187 HM3 /年。具有最高需求的社会经济部门是国内服务（48％），农业（27％），畜牧业（20％）和木材生产（5％）。最高的水可用性区域与具有最高需求的地区不同，反之亦然。然而，39％的市政当局需求较高，而不是其可用性。确定了水可用性的显着降低，考虑到-15％至40％的间隔。这种变化取决于气候模型，场景和时间段。该地区高估城市的地区将有更高的水可用性压力。这些结果可以通过专注于改编策略来减少立即将水资源赤字的适应策略实施。

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