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Environmental Modeling Technology and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

机译:降落热带气旋/飓风预报的环境建模技术和交流

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摘要

Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane) began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF) simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.
机译:卡特里娜飓风(热带气旋/飓风)于2005年8月28日开始增强,达到5级风暴,其风强度达到175 mph的峰值强度,压力低至902 mb。卡特里娜飓风最终减弱为3级风暴,并于2005年8月29日在布拉斯南部普拉亚明斯教区,路易斯安那州,墨西哥湾,布拉斯登陆。我们使用环境建模和技术工具研究了卡特里娜飓风的时间序列强度变化,以开发出一种早期和高级的预警和预测系统。环境中尺度模型(Weather Research Forecast,WRF)模拟用于预测强度变化和卡特里娜飓风的轨道。该模型在8月28日至8月30日的6小时内,在以墨西哥湾中部为中心的双重嵌套域上运行,网格间距分别为90 km和30 km。该模型结果与观测结果吻合良好,表明该模型能够模拟与卡特里娜飓风有关的表面特征,强度变化以及径迹和降水。我们使用在2005年8月21日至30日飓风降落期间墨西哥湾沿岸站的大气探测,使用在平衡水平(EL)处获得的对流可用动能(CAPE),计算了最大垂直速度(Wmax)。与陆地飓风卡特里娜飓风有关的大型垂直大气运动在登陆前2至3天产生了包括雷暴和龙卷风在内的恶劣天气。环境模型模拟与探测数据的结合表明,这些工具可以用作降落热带气旋/飓风的高级预测和通信系统(APCS)。

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