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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>PLoS Clinical Trials >Climate Change Habitat Loss Protected Areas and the Climate Adaptation Potential of Species in Mediterranean Ecosystems Worldwide
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Climate Change Habitat Loss Protected Areas and the Climate Adaptation Potential of Species in Mediterranean Ecosystems Worldwide

机译：全球地中海生态系统中的气候变化栖息地流失保护区和物种的气候适应潜力

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Mediterranean climate is found on five continents and supports five global biodiversity hotspots. Based on combined downscaled results from 23 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for three emissions scenarios, we determined the projected spatial shifts in the mediterranean climate extent (MCE) over the next century. Although most AOGCMs project a moderate expansion in the global MCE, regional impacts are large and uneven. The median AOGCM simulation output for the three emissions scenarios project the MCE at the end of the 21st century in Chile will range from 129–153% of its current size, while in Australia, it will contract to only 77–49% of its current size losing an area equivalent to over twice the size of Portugal. Only 4% of the land area within the current MCE worldwide is in protected status (compared to a global average of 12% for all biome types), and, depending on the emissions scenario, only 50–60% of these protected areas are likely to be in the future MCE. To exacerbate the climate impact, nearly one third (29–31%) of the land where the MCE is projected to remain stable has already been converted to human use, limiting the size of the potential climate refuges and diminishing the adaptation potential of native biota. High conversion and low protection in projected stable areas make Australia the highest priority region for investment in climate-adaptation strategies to reduce the threat of climate change to the rich biodiversity of the mediterranean biome.
机译：地中海气候遍布五大洲，是全球五个生物多样性热点。基于针对三种排放情景的23种大气-海洋总循环模型（AOGCM）的组合缩减结果，我们确定了下个世纪地中海气候范围（MCE）的预计空间变化。尽管大多数AOGCM计划在全球MCE中进行适度扩张，但区域影响是巨大且不平衡的。三种排放情景下的AOGCM模拟输出的中位数表明，智利在21世纪末期的MCE占当前规模的129–153％，而在澳大利亚，它将收缩至目前面积的77％至49％失去的面积相当于葡萄牙的两倍多。在当前的MCE中，全球目前只有4％的土地处于受保护状态（相比之下，所有生物群落类型的全球平均水平为12％），并且根据排放情况，这些保护区中可能只有50-60％成为未来的MCE。为了加剧气候影响，预计MCE保持稳定的土地中将近三分之一（29-31％）已转变为人类使用，限制了潜在气候庇护所的规模，并降低了原生生物群的适应潜力。预计稳定地区的高转化率和低保护使得澳大利亚成为气候适应战略投资的最优先区域，以减少气候变化对地中海生物群落丰富生物多样性的威胁。

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