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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>PLoS Clinical Trials >Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for an Alpine Basin in Northern Italy: Implications for Evapotranspiration Modeling Complexity
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Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for an Alpine Basin in Northern Italy: Implications for Evapotranspiration Modeling Complexity

机译：在意大利北部一个高山流域，气候变化对水资源的影响研究：对蒸散模型复杂性的启示

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Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required beacause of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.
机译：评估气候变化对水资源可用性的未来影响，需要了解降水和蒸散速率将如何响应大气强迫的变化。需要使用简化的水文模型是因为缺乏气象强迫，因为山地流域的水文过程建模需要大量的空间和时间分辨率，并且必须减少计算成本。这项研究的主要目的是量化模拟气候变化影响时仅使用降水和温度来计算水文平衡的简化水文模型与解决能源平衡问题的增强版之间的差异。计算实际的蒸散量。对于未来情景的气象强迫，使用了基于两个区域气候模型的现场偏差校正时间序列。基于分位数的纠错方法用于将区域气候模型模拟的规模缩小到点规模，并减少其误差特征。研究表明，一种简单的基于温度的蒸散量计算方法足以对所研究的高山流域进行气候变化的水文影响调查。

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