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Climate Change and Macro-Economic Cycles in Pre-Industrial Europe

机译：前工业化欧洲的气候变化和宏观经济周期

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Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.
机译：在工业化前的欧洲，气候变化已被证明是造成社会危机的最终原因。但是，仍然缺乏对工业化前时代的气候变化和宏观经济周期的详细分析，尤其是在不同的时间尺度上。因此，采用细粒度，古气候和经济数据以及统计方法，定量评估了公元1500年至1800年欧洲气候变化与农业经济之间的关系。在本研究中，采用巴特沃斯（Butterworth）过滤器对数据进行过滤。系列分为长期趋势（低频）和短期波动（高频）。进行了格兰杰因果关系分析，以研究不同频段上气候变化与宏观经济周期之间的关联。根据定量结果，气候变化只能在长期内对宏观经济周期产生重大影响。就短期影响而言，社会可以通过社会适应方法和自我调整机制缓解气候变化的影响。在较大的空间尺度上，温度对欧洲农业经济的重要性高于降水。通过考察粮食市场的供需机制，研究期内的人口从长期来看是生产者，而在短期是消费者。这些发现仅反映了长期研究阶段大空间区域气候变化与宏观经济周期之间的一般相互作用。这些发现既没有说明可能暂时改变农业经济的个别事件，也没有说明某些具体情况。在研究中，分析中的尺度思维首次被提出作为一个基本的方法论问题，以解释过去农业社会在不同时间尺度上的气候影响与宏观经济之间的联系。

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