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Using Species Distribution Models to Predict Potential Landscape Restoration Effects on Puma Conservation

机译：使用物种分布模型预测潜在的景观恢复对美洲狮保护的影响

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A mosaic of intact native and human-modified vegetation use can provide important habitat for top predators such as the puma (Puma concolor), avoiding negative effects on other species and ecological processes due to cascade trophic interactions. This study investigates the effects of restoration scenarios on the puma’s habitat suitability in the most developed Brazilian region (São Paulo State). Species Distribution Models incorporating restoration scenarios were developed using the species’ occurrence information to (1) map habitat suitability of pumas in São Paulo State, Southeast, Brazil; (2) test the relative contribution of environmental variables ecologically relevant to the species habitat suitability and (3) project the predicted habitat suitability to future native vegetation restoration scenarios. The Maximum Entropy algorithm was used (Test AUC of 0.84 ± 0.0228) based on seven environmental non-correlated variables and non-autocorrelated presence-only records (n = 342). The percentage of native vegetation (positive influence), elevation (positive influence) and density of roads (negative influence) were considered the most important environmental variables to the model. Model projections to restoration scenarios reflected the high positive relationship between pumas and native vegetation. These projections identified new high suitability areas for pumas (probability of presence >0.5) in highly deforested regions. High suitability areas were increased from 5.3% to 8.5% of the total State extension when the landscapes were restored for ≥ the minimum native vegetation cover rule (20%) established by the Brazilian Forest Code in private lands. This study highlights the importance of a landscape planning approach to improve the conservation outlook for pumas and other species, including not only the establishment and management of protected areas, but also the habitat restoration on private lands. Importantly, the results may inform environmental policies and land use planning in São Paulo State, Brazil.
机译：完整的本地和人工改造的植被的使用可以为顶级掠食者（例如美洲狮）提供重要的栖息地，避免由于级联营养相互作用而对其他物种和生态过程产生负面影响。这项研究调查了恢复情景对美洲最发达地区（圣保罗州）美洲狮栖息地适宜性的影响。利用物种的发生信息开发了包含恢复情景的物种分布模型，以（1）绘制巴西东南部圣保罗州美洲狮的栖息地适宜性； （2）测试与物种栖息地适宜性在生态上相关的环境变量的相对贡献，（3）将预测的栖息地适宜性投影到未来的原生植被恢复情景中。基于七个环境非相关变量和非自相关仅存在记录（n = 342），使用了最大熵算法（测试AUC为0.84±0.0228）。模型中最重要的环境变量是原生植被的百分比（正影响），高程（正影响）和道路密度（负影响）。对恢复情景的模型预测反映了美洲狮与本地植被之间的高度正相关。这些预测确定了高度毁林地区的新的高适宜性区域（存在概率> 0.5）。当景观恢复的程度≥《巴西森林法典》在私有土地上规定的最低原生植被覆盖规则（20％）时，高适宜性区域从州总扩张的5.3％增加到8.5％。这项研究强调了景观规划方法对于改善美洲狮和其他物种的保护前景的重要性，不仅包括保护区的建立和管理，还包括私人土地上的栖息地恢复。重要的是，结果可能会为巴西圣保罗州的环境政策和土地使用规划提供依据。

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