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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>PLoS Clinical Trials >Predicting Fecundity of Fathead Minnows (Pimephales promelas) Exposed to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals Using a MATLAB®-Based Model of Oocyte Growth Dynamics
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Predicting Fecundity of Fathead Minnows (Pimephales promelas) Exposed to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals Using a MATLAB®-Based Model of Oocyte Growth Dynamics

机译：使用基于MATLAB®的卵母细胞生长动力学模型预测暴露于破坏内分泌的化学物质的黑头Min（Pimephales promelas）的繁殖力

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Fish spawning is often used as an integrated measure of reproductive toxicity, and an indicator of aquatic ecosystem health in the context of forecasting potential population-level effects considered important for ecological risk assessment. Consequently, there is a need for flexible, widely-applicable, biologically-based models that can predict changes in fecundity in response to chemical exposures, based on readily measured biochemical endpoints, such as plasma vitellogenin (VTG) concentrations, as input parameters. Herein we describe a MATLAB® version of an oocyte growth dynamics model for fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) with a graphical user interface based upon a previously published model developed with MCSim software and evaluated with data from fathead minnows exposed to an androgenic chemical, 17β-trenbolone. We extended the evaluation of our new model to include six chemicals that inhibit enzymes involved in steroid biosynthesis: fadrozole, ketoconazole, propiconazole, prochloraz, fenarimol, and trilostane. In addition, for unexposed fathead minnows from group spawning design studies, and those exposed to the six chemicals, we evaluated whether the model is capable of predicting the average number of eggs per spawn and the average number of spawns per female, which was not evaluated previously. The new model is significantly improved in terms of ease of use, platform independence, and utility for providing output in a format that can be used as input into a population dynamics model. Model-predicted minimum and maximum cumulative fecundity over time encompassed the observed data for fadrozole and most propiconazole, prochloraz, fenarimol and trilostane treatments, but did not consistently replicate results from ketoconazole treatments. For average fecundity (eggs•female-1•day-1), eggs per spawn, and the number of spawns per female, the range of model-predicted values generally encompassed the experimentally observed values. Overall, we found that the model predicts reproduction metrics robustly and its predictions capture the variability in the experimentally observed data.
机译：产卵通常被用作生殖毒性的综合指标，在预测对生态风险评估很重要的潜在种群水平影响的背景下，也是水生生态系统健康的指标。因此，需要一种灵活的，广泛应用的，基于生物学的模型，该模型可以基于易于测量的生化终点（例如血浆卵黄蛋白原（VTG）浓度）作为输入参数，预测响应于化学暴露的繁殖力变化。本文中，我们基于图形化的用户界面描述了肥头min鱼（Pimephales promelas）的卵母细胞生长动力学模型的MATLAB ®版本，该图形用户界面基于先前发布的使用MCSim软件开发的模型，并根据暴露的fat头min鱼的数据进行了评估产生一种雄激素化学物质17β-群勃龙。我们扩展了对新模型的评估，包括六种抑制类固醇生物合成相关酶的化学物质：法得唑，酮康唑，丙环唑，丙草胺，苯那莫尔和三氯杀螨醇。此外，对于小组产卵设计研究中未暴露的黑头min鱼以及接触六种化学物质的黑头fat鱼，我们评估了该模型是否能够预测每只卵的平均卵数和每只雌性的卵数，但未进行评估先前。新模型在易用性，平台独立性和实用性方面得到了显着改进，该实用程序提供了可以用作人口动态模型输入的格式的输出。模型预测的随时间变化的最小和最大累积生育力包括法得唑和大多数丙环唑，丙草胺，苯那莫尔和三氯噻酮治疗的观察数据，但并不能始终如一地重复酮康唑治疗的结果。对于平均繁殖力（卵•雌性 -1 •日 -1 ），每个卵的卵数和每个雌卵的卵数，通常包含模型预测值的范围实验观察到的值。总体而言，我们发现该模型可以强有力地预测繁殖指标，并且其预测可以捕获实验观察到的数据中的变异性。

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