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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>PLoS Clinical Trials >Joint emulation of Earth System Model temperature-precipitation realizations with internal variability and space-time and cross-variable correlation: fldgen v2.0 software description
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Joint emulation of Earth System Model temperature-precipitation realizations with internal variability and space-time and cross-variable correlation: fldgen v2.0 software description

机译：具有内部可变性，时空和交叉变量相关性的地球系统模型温度降水实现的联合仿真：fldgen v2.0软件说明

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摘要

Earth System Models (ESMs) are excellent tools for quantifying many aspects of future climate dynamics but are too computationally expensive to produce large collections of scenarios for downstream users of ESM data. In particular, many researchers focused on the impacts of climate change require large collections of ESM runs to rigorously study the impacts to both human and natural systems of low-frequency high-importance events, such as multi-year droughts. Climate model emulators provide an effective mechanism for filling this gap, reproducing many aspects of ESMs rapidly but with lower precision. The fldgen v1.0 R package quickly generates thousands of realizations of gridded temperature fields by randomizing the residuals of pattern scaling temperature output from any single ESM, retaining the spatial and temporal variance and covariance structures of the input data at a low computational cost. The fldgen v2.0 R package described here extends this capability to produce joint realizations of multiple variables, with a focus on temperature and precipitation in an open source software package available for community use (). This substantially improves the fldgen package by removing the requirement that the ESM variables be normally distributed, and will enable researchers to quickly generate covarying temperature and precipitation data that are synthetic but faithful to the characteristics of the original ESM.
机译：地球系统模型（ESM）是用于量化未来气候动力学许多方面的出色工具，但计算量太大，无法为ESM数据的下游用户生成大量的场景。特别是，许多专注于气候变化影响的研究人员需要大量ESM运行来严格研究低频高重要性事件（如多年干旱）对人和自然系统的影响。气候模型仿真器提供了一种有效的机制来填补这一空白，可以快速但以较低的精度重现ESM的许多方面。 fldgen v1.0 R软件包通过随机化任何单个ESM输出的模式缩放温度的残差，并保留输入数据的时空方差和协方差结构，快速生成了成千上万个温度网格的实现。计算成本低。此处描述的 fldgen v2.0 R软件包扩展了此功能，以产生多个变量的联合实现，并着重于可供社区使用的开源软件包中的温度和降水。通过消除对ESM变量呈正态分布的要求，这大大改善了 fldgen 软件包，并使研究人员能够快速生成合成的但忠于原始ESM特征的温度和降水数据。

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