• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>PLoS Clinical Trials >Predicting population age structures of China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on compositional data
【2h】

Predicting population age structures of China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on compositional data

机译：根据构成数据预测到2030年中国，印度和越南的人口年龄结构

代理获取
本网站仅为用户提供外文OA文献查询和代理获取服务，本网站没有原文。下单后我们将采用程序或人工为您竭诚获取高质量的原文，但由于OA文献来源多样且变更频繁，仍可能出现获取不到、文献不完整或与标题不符等情况，如果获取不到我们将提供退款服务。请知悉。
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0–14), the middle-aged (aged 15–64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam’s trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively “young”. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development.
机译：不断变化的人口年龄结构对国家的经济，社会以及许多其他方面都具有重大影响。本文创新地运用了组合数据预测方法来预测中国年轻人（0至14岁），中年（15至64岁）和老年人（65岁以上）的人口年龄变化。 ，印度和越南在2030年之前基于1960年至2016年的数据。为了选择最合适的预测模型，广泛采用了一系列数据转换方法和预测模型，并且在上述内容之间进行了大量比较方法。确定每个国家的最合适模型时要考虑成分数据的均方根误差和绝对绝对误差值。如本研究所述，首先，最重要的是，预计到2030年，中国将见证人口红利的消失，并陷入比印度或越南严重得多的老龄化问题。其次，越南人口年龄结构的变化趋势与中国相似，但该国总体上将保持良好的健康状态。最后，印度的劳动人口显示出强劲的增长趋势，表明印度人口的年龄结构仍然相对“年轻”。同时，老年人口比例的不断增加和年轻人口的增长逐渐趋于平稳已成为世界上的严重问题。本文试图提供有关亚洲人口规模，劳动力市场和城市化的重要见解，并且为可持续的全球人口发展提供建议。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
代理获取

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号