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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Springer Open Choice >The importance of health co-benefits in macroeconomic assessments of UK Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategies
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The importance of health co-benefits in macroeconomic assessments of UK Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategies

机译：健康共同利益在英国温室气体减排战略的宏观经济评估中的重要性

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We employ a single-country dynamically-recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to make health-focussed macroeconomic assessments of three contingent UK Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation strategies, designed to achieve 2030 emission targets as suggested by the UK Committee on Climate Change. In contrast to previous assessment studies, our main focus is on health co-benefits additional to those from reduced local air pollution. We employ a conservative cost-effectiveness methodology with a zero net cost threshold. Our urban transport strategy (with cleaner vehicles and increased active travel) brings important health co-benefits and is likely to be strongly cost-effective; our food and agriculture strategy (based on abatement technologies and reduction in livestock production) brings worthwhile health co-benefits, but is unlikely to eliminate net costs unless new technological measures are included; our household energy efficiency strategy is likely to breakeven only over the long term after the investment programme has ceased (beyond our 20 year time horizon). We conclude that UK policy makers will, most likely, have to adopt elements which involve initial net societal costs in order to achieve future emission targets and longer-term benefits from GHG reduction. Cost-effectiveness of GHG strategies is likely to require technological mitigation interventions and/or demand-constraining interventions with important health co-benefits and other efficiency-enhancing policies that promote internalization of externalities. Health co-benefits can play a crucial role in bringing down net costs, but our results also suggest the need for adopting holistic assessment methodologies which give proper consideration to welfare-improving health co-benefits with potentially negative economic repercussions (such as increased longevity).Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0881-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
机译：我们采用一个国家的动态递归可计算一般均衡模型，以健康为重点，评估了三种或有的英国温室气体（GHG）缓解策略的宏观经济评估，这些策略旨在实现英国气候变化委员会建议的2030年排放目标。与以前的评估研究相比，我们的主要重点是健康共同利益，而不是减少本地空气污染的共同利益。我们采用保守的成本效益方法，净成本门槛为零。我们的城市交通战略（使用更清洁的车辆和增加主动出行）带来了重要的健康共同利益，并且可能具有很高的成本效益；我们的粮食和农业战略（基于减排技术和减少畜牧生产）带来了有益的健康共同效益，但除非包括新的技术措施，否则不可能消除净成本；我们的家庭能效战略可能仅在投资计划终止后（超过20年的时间范围）长期才能达到收支平衡。我们得出的结论是，英国的决策者很可能将不得不采用涉及初始社会净成本的要素，以实现未来的排放目标和减少温室气体的长期利益。温室气体战略的成本效益可能需要技术缓解干预措施和/或需求限制干预措施，以及重要的健康共同效益和其他促进外部性内部化的提高效率的政策。健康共同利益在降低净成本方面可以发挥关键作用，但我们的研究结果还表明需要采用整体评估方法，该方法应适当考虑可能带来负面经济影响（例如延长寿命）的改善福利的健康共同利益电子补充材料本文的在线版本（doi：10.1007 / s10584-013-0881-6）包含补充材料，授权用户可以使用。

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